Tariff Simulation Analysis Of Sino-US Trade Friction

Trade relations in international trade inevitably lead to trade disputes and frictions.The trade deficit between China and the United States that has continued to expand in recent years has also become the fuse of Sino-US trade friction.Behind the problem of trade imbalance,the main responsibility of Sino-US trade imbalances lies not in China.Apart from the exaggerated factors,it is caused by the structural problems of the US economy.The Triffin puzzle tells that in order to maintain the monetary and dominance of the US dollar,the United States must expand its trade deficit to export more dollars to meet the growing dollar demand in the world.Therefore,the dominant position of the monetary system determines the US trade.Behind the trade friction between China and the United States,there should be other deeper and longer-term economic and historical laws.The essence of Sino-US trade friction is the process of the contradiction between the declining incumbent country and the rising emerging country.Trade friction and the all-round containment of the United States are the inevitable challenges that China must face on its rise.By constructing a static Sino-US game model and combining the forward-looking results derived from the GTAP model,the empirical analysis shows that the Nash equilibrium state in Sino-US trade friction adopts a free trade strategy for one party,and one adopts a trade protectionist strategy.The situation of prisoner's dilemma or cooperative game should be a small probability event.Through the GTAP model,from the four perspectives of economic growth,full employment,price stability,and balance of payments,the impact of tariff shocks on the macro economy is described in the context of the first two tax levies between China and the United States and possible comprehensive taxation in the future.In the long run,the comprehensive trade friction will have a greater impact on China's GDP,social welfare,and trade conditions,and the US will not be able to achieve the goal of manufacturing a strong country and reverse the trade deficit through unilateral trade protection.Therefore,in the face of the US unilateral trade protectionist actions,China should comprehensively assess the impact of tariffs on the basis of understanding the nature of trade frictions,estimate the difficulties comprehensively,know one's self and know the enemy,and increase the tax rate according to the US.The possible impact of macroeconomics,clarify the economic significance of the data,and then combine strategy and tactics,make a comprehensive judgment,give corresponding plans and countermeasures,choose the correct judgment strategy and the game dominates the equilibrium.in addition to raising the credibility of threats and commitments,China should take this opportunity to continue to deepen Reform and Opening,reduce tariffs,and reduce Non-tariffbarriers and subsidies,create a transparent and fair capital market,adopt a market-for-technology strategy,stop compulsory technology transfer,strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights,and use technological innovation to enhance China's position in the global production value chain.