Measuring Urban Economic Resilience In Northeast China

The wave of globalization has introduced the urban economy into a nonlinear network structure system,making the urban economic system unpredictable.How to maintain the healthy and stable development of the urban economic system and reduce the risks caused by unpredictable changes has attracted the attention of the academic community and the industry.Correspondingly,resilience,as a new research paradigm centered on overall dynamics and nonlinearity,has attracted extensive exploration and analysis by scholars.As a traditional old industrial base in China,the Northeast region played an important role in China's economic development before the reform and opening up.Since the revitalization of the Northeast,although the city's economic strength and social development level have been continuously improved,the quality of the ecological environment has been greatly improved.However,due to the problems of a large number of resource-based cities and a single industrial structure,there are still many vulnerabilities in urban economic development in Northeast China.Therefore,this paper selects 37 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China as the research object,and measures the economic resilience of each city,aiming to promote the healthy and stable development of urban economy in Northeast China.The data in this paper mainly comes from the China Urban Statistical Yearbook,the China Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook,the Regional Economic Statistical Yearbook,and the Heilongjiang,Liaoning,Jilin,and Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbooks.The multi-index comprehensive evaluation method is used to measure the economic resilience of cities in Northeast China,analyze its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics,and study the specific impact factors of urban economic resilience,and propose countermeasures to enhance urban economic resilience according to the different economic impact factors of each city.The main results and conclusions are as follows:(1)Constructed a measure system of urban economic resilience in Northeast China.On the basis of analyzing the impact factors of urban economic resilience,the comprehensive measurement index system of urban economic resilience is constructed,including five subsystems of diversity,income and expenditure,innovation environment,development trend and openness,including 30 specific indicators.(2)Empirical analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban economic resilience in Northeast China.The economic toughness of urban economics in Northeast China has gradually increased from 2005 to 2016,and the maximum value is Dalian,the minimum value is Suihua;spatial agglomeration The degree increases first and then decreases,and the urban economic toughness of the eastern coastal areas is higher than that of the western inland areas.The gradient differentiation characteristics are obvious.The economic toughness of cities such as Dalian,Shenyang,Panjin,Changchun,Daqing and Harbin has been relatively high;the economic toughness of cities such as Liaoyuan,Siping,Baicheng,Suihua and Yichun has been low.(3)The sub-system impact degree of urban economic resilience in Northeast China shows that the overall impact is affected by the diversity system and development trend system,and the weight values are 0.214 and 0.216 respectively.Cities with diversity system as the main influencing factor are concentrated in Liaoning Province;cities with development trend system as the main influencing factor are concentrated in the western part of Heilongjiang Province,the western part of Jilin Province,and the eastern part of Mongolia;the spatial distribution of urban areas with the main impact factor is more dispersed;cities with the innovative environmental system as the main influencing factor are concentrated in the eastern part of Heilongjiang Province and the northern part of Liaoning Province;cities with the open system as the main influencing factor are concentrated in the northern part of Heilongjiang Province,the northern part of Jilin Province,and the northeastern part of Liaoning Province.The influence degree of each impact factor on the economic resilience of the old industrial base city: the system of revenue and expenditure >the open system >the diversity system = the innovative environmental system > development trend system;the degree of influence on resource-based cities: the system of revenue and expenditure> the open system > the innovative environment system > the development trend system > the diversity system.(4)According to the different factors of economic resilience of each city,specific improvement measures are proposed.Cities with the diversity system as the main influencing factor can increase the diversity of urban economic structure by extending the industrial chain,nurturing new enterprises,and promoting the diversification of regional actors.Cities with the income and expenditure system as the main influencing factor can improve the income and expenditure capacity of urban residents by raising the wages of enterprise employees and implementing policies and measures conducive to expanding consumption;through the macro-regulation of taxation of “tax increase” and “tax reduction” adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure to improve the government's revenue and expenditure capacity.Cities with the innovation environment system as the main influencing factor can create a good innovation environment by establishing fair market access rules,giving play to the key role of entrepreneurs,cultivating and attracting all types of talents,and strengthening open cooperation and collaborative innovation at home and abroad.Cities with the development trend system as the main influencing factor can create good development trends by adjusting economic structure and paying attention to people's livelihood issues.Cities with the open system as the main influencing factor can improve the business environment;enhance the intensity of attracting foreign investment,attract investment from multinational companies,further develop the Northeast Asian market,focus on the introduction of integration with the go-out and improve the transportation network and other measures to enhance the openness of foreign trade.