| The development of economic globalization has strengthened the close relationship between countries,but it also makes the uncertainty of the world economy an inevitable exogenous factor for regional sustainable development.In 2018,the US led trade war between China and the United States broke out,and trade protectionism and anti globalization trend surged,which overlapped the global economic stagnation caused by COVID-19 in 2020.Therefore,how to reduce the negative impact of external uncertainty risk on China’s trade growth and realize the high-quality development of regional export-oriented economy has gradually become the focus of academic attention.In recent years,the concept of regional resilience has gradually become an important indicator to evaluate the quality and sustainability of regional trade development at different spatial scales,which provides a new perspective to explain the difference of regional trade’s ability to resist external risk shocks and recovery.As an important platform for China to participate in international competition,the study of its trade resilience level and influencing factors can provide a good paradigm for other regions in China to improve the level of trade resilience.This paper takes 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as the research object,combined with relevant theoretical research,evaluation indicators and quantitative analysis of regional resilience at home and abroad,this paper constructs a trade resilience index system from the four dimensions of resistance,recovery,reorganization and innovation,and determines the weight of trade resilience index through Mahalanobis-Taguchi System,The catastrophe series model is used to measure the trade toughness level of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2020.From the perspective of time,on the whole,the level of trade resilience of urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Delta has changed from medium and low resilience to medium and high resilience.Before and after the crisis in different periods,the level of trade resilience changes differently,and the capabilities of different dimensions of trade resilience also show different evolutionary characteristics,showing a steady-state upward trend on the whole;At the provincial level,Shanghai has the highest level of trade resilience,Anhui has the lowest level of trade resilience,and there is a small gap between Jiangsu and Zhejiang.The changes of provincial resilience are different before and after the crisis.From the perspective of space,trade resilience shows significant spatial autocorrelation,and there is local spatial agglomeration.The level of trade resilience of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta varies greatly from north to South and from east to west.At the same time,the focus of trade resilience moves from northern Jiangsu to northern Anhui.Secondly,the spatial panel Tobit model is used to analyze the influencing factors of trade resilience.The empirical results show that technological innovation,financial self-sufficiency,urbanization level and communication level have a significant positive role in promoting the level of trade resilience of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta,and all have passed the robustness test.The secondary industry has an inflection point effect on trade resilience,At the beginning of industrialization,it depends on the import and export of trade.If it is greatly affected by external shocks,the resilience is weak,but in the later stage,with the enhancement of the strength of China’s secondary industry,it will promote the improvement of the level of trade resilience.To sum up,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions and further research directions from six aspects: increasing R & D investment,giving full play to the leading role of the government,promoting the construction of new urbanization,improving communication level,optimizing industrial structure. |
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