The Research On Financing Repayment Risk Management Of PT.DX Indonesia Project

This paper makes an in-depth study on the financing repayment risks of PT.DX Indonesia Project to discuss the specific methods and measures for risk identification,risk assessment and risk treatment of the financing repayment risks of large-scale cross-border project.Through theoretical analysis and project research,the paper puts forward the control basis and management suggestions for the financing repayment risks of PT.DX Indonesia Project in order to optimize the risk management level for the project,which plays an important role in learning for other "One Belt And One Road" project.The financing repayment risks of PT.DX Indonesia Project can be controlled under the current project conditions,and the nominal interest payment capacity of the project is generally better than the actual principal and interest repayment capacity.However,the actual principal and interest repayment capacity of the project requires attention and further strengthening.After risk identification and risk assessment,the product sales price risk of PT.DX Indonesia Project has a high change probability and has the greatest influence on the sensitivity of the risk assessment indicator of the project,and the decrease rate of the product sales price shall be controlled not to exceed 5.1%.The unit cost risk of raw materials also has a high change probability and has s a significant influence on the sensitivity of the risk assessment indicator of the project,and the unit cost should be capped at 6.8 per cent.At the same time,PT.DX Indonesia Project has a high probability of the exchange rate risk change that has a strong influence on the sensitivity of the risk assessment indicator of the project and the depreciation of the exchange rate should be limited to 29.7 per cent.Similarly,the change of the project productivity also has a strong influence on the sensitivity of the risk assessment indicator of project,and the level of the project productivity should be controlled to be no less than 60%.In particular,it is necessary to prevent and control the deterioration of the current country risk and shareholder risk status with medium risk probability.In addition,the unit fixed cash expenditure risk,the benchmark interest rate risk and the income tax rate risk of PT.DX Indonesia Project are low,that have a very weak influence on the sensitivity of the risk assessment indicator of the project and need to only pay attention to the corresponding risk changes after the loan.In terms of risk management and specific control measures,we shall take measures for active defense and risk transfer against the product sales price risk and the unit cost risk of raw materials that have a significant impact on the risk assessment indicator,such as improving market discourse power and locking transaction price.For risks that have a significant impact on the risk assessment indicator,such as the exchange rate risk and the project productivity risk that mainly includes country risk and shareholder risk,we shall adopt risk transfer and risk mitigation measures by using hedging,insurance and adjustment of settlement methods and enhancing the strength of shareholders to transfer and resist risks.As for the weak risks such as the unit fixed cash expenditure risk,the benchmark interest rate risk and the income tax rate risk,we should take risk mitigation and risk acceptance measures in order to maximize the use of project risk management resources and save project risk management investment.In the study on the financing repayment risk management of PT.DX Indonesia Project,this paper firstly introduces the project and comprehensively analyzes the financing repayment risks,so that the financing repayment risk analysis system is constructed.Secondly,risk identification and evaluation methods are proposed,and a risk identification system and a risk evaluation mathematical model are established used for qualitative and quantitative analysis of PT.DX Indonesia Project.Then,this paper uses the risk decomposition analysis method to carry on effective risk identification to the financing repayment risks of the project by combining the statistical analysis of historical data,referring to the analysis of industry level,referring to the analysis of professional institutions and using expert survey scores.Meanwhile,the financial index analysis method is adopted and risk assessment analysis and risk change impact study are carried out on the financing repayment risks of the project by using the established risk assessment indicator.Finally,based on the results of risk identification and risk assessment,this paper puts forward specific control strategies and suggestions on the significant,strong and weak influence risks of PT.DX Indonesia Project to the risk assessment indicator,and risk management measures should be implemented from four aspects: risk aversion,risk transfer,risk mitigation and risk acceptance.In addition,through the conclusion of the research on the financing repayment risk management of PT.DX Indonesia Project,this paper points out the reference significance and research prospect of the related achievements.