The Impact Of Shantytowns Renovation On Housing Prices

The transformation of shantytowns is a livelihood project to improve the living environment of residents and enhance the urban construction style,which is of great significance for maintaining social health and stable development.With the country's vigorous development of shantytowns in recent years,it also had a profound impact on the real estate market in China.When it comes to the transformation of shantytowns,people often think of the more dazzling words such as “upstart” and “demolition of the second generation”.Since the promotion of monetization in 2014,the shantytown transformation also has driven the housing price while destocking.And occupying a pivotal position in the real estate market.In China,having a house means that we can live a stable life.Especially in today's rapid economic development,the housing problem is urgent for the younger generation.The housing price rises too fast,and more and more people's housing just needs to be solved.It became a distant dream.Therefore,this thesis mainly discusses the impact of shantytown reconstruction on housing prices and the intercity differences among different cities,and on this basis,further analyzes the impact of monetary resettlement mode and physical resettlement mode on housing prices in shantytown reconstruction compensation mode.This thesis takes the main mode of shantytown transformation as the starting point,and studies the degree of influence of shantytown renovation on housing price from the resettlement compensation mode.Firstly,the development mode,financing mode and resettlement compensation mode of shantytown reconstruction are sorted out,and then the impact of physical resettlement and monetary resettlement on housing price in the resettlement compensation mode is discussed from the perspective of housing supply and demand.In the empirical study,this thesis firstly screens the growth rate of the average sales price of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities in the past five years,and selects five cities with fast housing prices and five cities with slow housing prices.Then,the panel model is built on the original data of housing prices from 2008 to 2017,including the average sales price of commercial housing,investment in commercial housing,land price,completion area of commercial housing,total population,per capita disposable income of urban residents,urban GDP,transformation scale of shantytowns,the housing price growth rate,and interest rate.Using the Stata 12 to perform Hausman test on the sample data and establish a fixed effect model,it is found that shantytown renovation has a significant impact on housing prices and the impact is greater in cities where housing prices are rising rapidly.Finally,the dummy variable of resettlement mode is introduced to conduct regression analysis on the panel model of all sample cities.It is further found that the monetary resettlement mode in the resettlement compensation mode has a stronger driving effect on housing price than the physical resettlement mode.It is concluded that the excessive proportion of monetary resettlement is the fundamental reason for the rapid rise of housing price.This thesis consists of five chapters.From the structural point of view,it can be divided into the following three parts: the first part,including Chapters 1 and 2,is the foundation of this article.The first chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic,and on the basis of the domestic and foreign research on shantytown renovation and housing price,the content and direction of this thesis are determined.The second chapter combines the research content,introduces the basic meaning and characteristics of shantytown renovation and housing price,and the basic theory needed in this study.At the same time,it also describes the model methods that need to be used to support the following research.The second part,including the third chapter and the fourth chapter,is the core part of this thesis.It analyzes the impact of shantytown transformation on housing price from qualitative and quantitative perspectives.The third chapter begins with the impact mechanism of shantytown renovation on housing price.Combining the two aspects of housing supply and demand,this thesis discusses the impact of resettlement compensation mode on housing price in the main mode of shantytown reconstruction,and compares it with physical objects.Resettlement,monetization and resettlement have made the shantytown reform system and the housing system more integrated,and the monetary compensation has rapidly promoted the transaction volume of real estate and promoted the rise of housing prices.The fourth chapter is mainly empirical analysis.From the housing supply and demand factors,according to the principle of variable selection,the appropriate variables are selected to construct the model.Through the growth of commodity housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities in the past five years,the cities with fast and slow growth rates were selected for regression analysis.It is found that the impact of shantytown renovation on housing prices is different in different cities.Then,model construction and regression analysis are carried out for all sample cities,and it is found that the impact of monetization resettlement on housing price increase is greater than physical resettlement.The last part is the fifth chapter.Based on the previous two parts of research,combined with the current situation of China's shantytown renovation and housing market,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Shantytown renovation has a significant impact on housing prices;(2)The impact of shantytown renovation on housing prices has inter-city differences;(3)Monetized resettlement is an important thrust for housing prices to rise;(4)Monetization resettlement also increases the pressure on local housing market while destocking.On the basis of the research conclusions,the following policy recommendations are proposed for the future shantytown renovation plan in China:(1)Reasonable selection of shantytown renovation time,development of medium and long-term goals;(2)Reasonably adjust the scale of shantytown renovation,and avoid one-size-fits-all standardization;(3)Rationally selecting shantytowns to renovate and resettle the way,due to urban governance;(4)Combining the transformation of shanty towns with other policy models and innovative choice mode.