Study On Simulation Of Land Use Pattern In Caofeidian New Area Based On EI-CA-markov

At present, the land use in our country is facing the contest of cultivated landprotection,ecological protection and economic development three types pressures, how toprotect farmland effectively, coordinate the contradiction between increasingly strongdemand for land and the increasingly strengthen for ecological protection, which hasbecome China’s future severe challenges of land use.Over the past30years, China’s landuse changes in turn the world upside down, which damaged the structure and function ofthe regional ecological system, so the reasonable simulation of land use change hasimportant significance for optimizing land use pattern.EI-CA-Markov modelcomprehensive the ability of simulate the complex system spatial variation of CA modeland the advantage of long term forecast of Markov model, considering thecomprehensive regional ecological security, so as to reasonable realize land ecologicalprotection and land efficient use.The contradiction between the better coordination of food security, economicdevelopment and ecological protection as a starting point, through the comprehensivestudy on landscape security pattern theory and CA-Markov model,dealing with threeperiod of remote sensing image of the study area--Hebei province Caofeidian NewDistrict in1990,2000,2010, and using dynamic degree of land, the land transferprobability matrix method to comprehensive,systemic analysis the characteristics andevolutio of land use change in Caofeidian New District during1990-2010;Discusses howto establish landscape security pattern through landscape process analysis and landscaperecognition,and renovate the different landscape security pattern, structure the regionalecological infrastructure; and build EI-CA-Markov model to simulate land use change inthe area. Through the research, the following conclusions can be drawn:utilize remote sensing image interpretation and research on land use change inCaofeidian new area during1990,2000,2010, by means of the spatial analysis functionof GIS, land use change characteristics of Caofeidian New District in20years areobtained, the results show that:On the whole, the land use pattern in saltern, residentialand industrial land increased, port and dock as new types of land, cultivated land andwoodland decreased and then increased, coastal beach and unused land have been decreasing trend.occuping cultivated land is the main source of rural residential land andindustrial land;reclaiming land from the sea is the main source of port and dock landincreased.During the research period, the cultivated land decreased and then increased,reducing part is occupied for construction and converse to other type land more thanunused land development of arable land supplement, increasing part is due todevelopment of unused land more than occupied for construction and transformation toothers.These changes show the interference degree on land use change by humanactivities is growing in Caofeidian New Area during the study period. The resultsprovide the data basis for the follow-up simulation study.The Caofeidian new district ecological infrastructure (comprehensive ecologicalsecurity pattern)closely related to the land use/cover change, the influence factors ofecological infrastructure is diverse, this article based on real ecological status of theregion, constructed the hydrology security pattern, geological disaster and coastalprotection security pattern, biological diversity protection security pattern and singleprocess safety pattern of recreational security pattern in the region,which in the leadingposition,then synthesize the individual security pattern, construct the ecologicalinfrastructure (comprehensive ecological security pattern) in Caofeidian newdistrict.Caofeidian new district existing dominant ecological services function including:hydrological regulation, biodiversity conservation, scenic spot and cultural heritageprotection. This study emphasizes the integrality and the comprehensive in the spatialstructure and ecological services of ecological security pattern, integrating the ecologicalservices into a full landscape pattern.This paper tries to combine the landscape security pattern theory and cellularautomata model, structure EI-CA-Markov model, this model introduces regionalecological infrastructure as a spatial factor and considering the basic farmland protectionand planning oriented spatial factors, rather than solely on the basis of extensionsimulation in the land use development trend.The EI-CA-Mokov model has set up abridge between land use change simulation and landscape ecological security pattern,provides a effective way to realize regional ecological protection and promote economicconstruction.By using the simulation model above,accomplish land use simulation of the studyarea based on ecological security, the simulation results not only reflect the change ruleof each land type, but also reflected the development trend of centralized.The land usetypes by land use simulation which consideration of ecological protection andeconomic construction are consistent with the actual ecological conservation andconstruction development needs, provide technical support for the construction areasmart growth and ecological land smart protection. The model can be applied to coastal ecological city with rapid economic development, provides certain reference for thefuture land arrangement.