Anchoring Effect Of Credit Risk Assessment Of Real Estate Projects

In recent years,commercial banks,as the main financing channel of real estate,have greatly increased the credit business scale of real estate projects in the process of operation.The prevention and control of credit risk of real estate projects is an important part of bank management.Therefore,it is particularly crucial to study the credit evaluation of real estate projects by commercial banks.This paper chooses the case of Bank A's optical project as the research object to study the anchoring effect in the process of commercial bank credit evaluation.The existing literature mainly focuses on the anchoring effect in macro-market phenomena,but at the micro level,there are few studies on the impact of anchoring effect on credit evaluation decision-making of real estate projects.Based on the study of capital profit-seeking theory,commercial bank risk management theory and anchoring theory,this paper illustrates that the background of anchoring effect is due to the profit-seeking nature of commercial banks and the failure to implement comprehensive risk management and control,resulting in a high proportion of subjective decision-making,and aiming at the external anchoring,internal anchoring and the evaluation deficiencies in the approval mechanism of commercial banks.Define the concepts of disposal and potential assessment risk.Then,combining with the actual case of Bank A,this paper analyses the anchoring effect manifestations of real estate market historical information,regional historical information,mortgage evaluation quotation,expert leadership opinions,information transmission mechanism and market law evaluation in the practice of credit evaluation,and clarifies the inadequacy of industry regional analysis,excessive emphasis on collateral,Enterprise Empirical Review and approval opinions.Loss of sexual advantage and insufficiency of cash flow analysis are verified by AHP,which reveals the potential assessment risks such as disposal of commercial real estate collateral,empirical review of enterprises,failure of market law and so on.Finally,it provides some methods for commercial banks to amend anchor value,such as speeding up the construction of advanced internal rating law system in Basel Accord,adding mathematical model analysis to credit decision-making,setting up professional credit examination and evaluation departments,optimizing the examination and approval mode and path,giving full play to the diversity of views of personnel,and strengthening the risk of commercial banks in the approval of real estate project credit business.The evaluation and risk control level provide a reference basis.This paper finds that in the process of credit decision-making of real estate projects,commercial banks in China will be affected by the anchor value from the historical information of real estate market,regional historical information,Collateral Evaluation value,expert leadership opinion,information transmission mechanism,market law evaluation and so on.This influence will increase the potential assessment risk that commercial banks will encounter in the future,so it is necessary to establish a more effective way.Improve the wind control system and personnel mechanism,so that credit decision-making bias to the real situation.The innovations of this paper are:(1)The research perspective is to study how to improve the credit approval quality of commercial banks'real estate projects through the individual cognitive behavior of the business approval line personnel.(2)The research content is based on anchoring effect to analyze the subjective anchoring of all levels and departments in the credit approval process of real estate project loans,and to verify the role of anchoring effect in credit decision-making,which is seldom involved in previous studies.The application value of this paper lies in:it can provide suggestions for the logic and process of loan approval for most real estate projects of banks in the industry,in order to ensure the healthy development of the industry,reduce the undesirable rate and achieve steady economic growth.