Research On Russia's Agricultural Exports To China Under The Background Of Western Sanctions

In the 21st,Sino-Russian trade has maintained a relatively stable development tendency.In 2014,the Western countries headed by the United States sanctioned Russia,providing an opportunity for China and Russia to further deepen their economic ties.Russia under Western sanctions was exploring actively the Chinese market.In recent years,Russian agricultural exports to China have become a new growth point for its exports to China.However,for a long time,Russia's agricultural exports to China have grown slowly,and the fluctuations in the Russian economic environment have become more apparent.Therefore,in-depth exploration and analysis of the impact of Russia's exports to China is of great significance to the deepening of economic and trade relations between Russia and China.The research framework of this paper is as follows:Firstly,the article analyzes the current situation of Sino-Russian trade from four angles:They are the current situation of Sino-Russian trade,the status quo of Russian agricultural exports to China,the impact of Western sanctions on Russia's agricultural exports to China,and the competitiveness of Russia's agricultural exports to China.The study found that Russia's agricultural exports scale to China grew faster after Western sanctions,but there was a problem that the distribution of agricultural exports was not evenly.On this basis,this paper selects four kinds of agricultural products that were counter-sanctioned and four kinds of agricultural products that have not been sanctioned by Russia in 2014,then calculates their export trade competitiveness,dominant comparative advantage index and intra-industry trade index,I found that after Western sanctions,Russia's export competitiveness to China's agricultural products has strengthened,and agricultural trade between the two countries is dominated by inter-industry trade.Secondly,in order to explore the influence of Russia's agricultural exports to China,I establish a constant market share model for empirical analysis,and calculate the influence extent of export size,export structure and export competitiveness in the four different stages of 2007-2010,2011-2013,2014-2015 and 2016-2017 respectively.Then compare and analyze the differences and trends;the empirical results show that the influence of Russia's agricultural exports to China are mainly based on changes in competitiveness,and the structural effects are rising but the fluctuations are small,indicating that Russia's export competitiveness to China's agricultural products has increased.Thirdly,this paper selects the top 50 countries in Russia for export agricultural products in 2017.These countries account for 90%of Russia's total agricultural exports,and incorporate western sanctions into the gravity model.Through empirical analysis,we analyze and observe the relationship between Western sanctions and Russian agricultural exports to China.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions on Russian agricultural exports to China,with a view to promoting the further development of Russian-Chinese agricultural trade.The proposal includes Russia's speeding up of the transformation of agricultural product export structure with China,grasping the development trend of agricultural products export,strengthening agricultural cooperation with China and other non-sanctioned countries,improving the competitiveness of agricultural products exports to China.