Study On The Influencing Factors Of Chinese Poultry Products Export Trade

China is one of the countries which have a big poultry output and consumption in theworld. The poultry export trade plays an important role in Agriculture, Countryside andPeasantry of China. But, since China entered into world trade organization (WTO), we arefacing with a slower developing and a more drastic fluctuating situation of poultry exporttrade, which led to Chinese poultry declining in the world. The export trade pattern wascritical to export growth and export benefits, and it was very important to study the pattern,succession and influencing factors of Chinese poultry products export trade, which will behelpful to find some strategies to promote and stimulate poultry export trade and to maintainstable export growth of poultry products. So, based on the theory of classic international tradeand competition superiority, using multiple methods such as statistical description,comparative analysis, quantitative analysis, this dissertation focused on the pattern,succession and influence factors of Chinese poultry products export trade, and suggestedsome countermeasures optimizing the pattern of poultry export trade so as to enhance thedevelopment of Chinese poultry products export trade.Using statistic description and trade index method to analyze the pattern of Chinesepoultry export trade, the result showed some specific characteristics of Chinese poultryproducts export trade such as slow increase of trade volume, small ratio of export productsand drastic export fluctuation. For the time being, the status of China appeared declining inthe poultry products export market of all over the world. And the export trade of poultryfocused on fowl and its products, while leather and eggs occupied a smaller ratio. This patternwas unmatched with that of import products in the world. the75percent share of Chinesepoultry products was in Asia, and the top four were Japan，Hongkong, USA, EU, whichcovered85percent of export volume. Both increase rate and absolute market share showed avery bad matching of Chinese poultry main export market with the world poultry main importmarket. All above results revealed the general characteristics of Chinese poultry export tradepattern, that was small scale, drastic fluctuation, concentrated export structure, bad matchingwith world import and unreasonable trade structure.Based on the characteristics of Chinese poultry export trade, using Constant MarketShare Model (CMS model) to analyze the principal factors affecting the fluctuation of poultryexport trade, the results showed that the principal factors affecting the fluctuation of Chinesepoultry export trade were import-demanding effect, export-competitive effect and tradestructure effect. Of all three factors, import-demanding was the leading force of export increase, while export-competition and trade structure would limit the increase of export tradein most periods. So, it was essential to take a further analysis and clarify how those threeeffects affected the Chinese poultry products export trade.Using trade indices calculation and qualitative analysis to study the internationalcompetitiveness and its affecting factors of Chinese poultry products export trade, the resultsshowed that Chinese competitiveness in poultry products were decreasing over time and itstotal competitiveness was significantly lower than that of U.S.A, Brazil and Thailand. Thedirect reason of international competitiveness decreasing was that the quality of exportedproducts couldn’t meet the quality requirement of import country and also the dominance ofexport price was disappearing. However, the deeper reason was that the competitiveadvantage of Chinese poultry industry was still not strong enough.Using correlation coefficient and region variance decomposition model to analyze therelationship between the export market concentration and export instability of Chinese poultryproducts, the results showed that there was positive relationship between them and it wouldbe helpful to decrease export instability through exploring export range. The quantitativeanalysis based on gravity model of Chinese poultry export indicated that the factors affectingChinese poultry export market structure were in such orders as spatial distance, commonboundary, APEC regime arrangement, WTO regime arrangement, output value of Chineseanimal husbandry, economic scale of importing country and absolute difference per capita ofboth sides.Using correlation coefficient, cointergration theory and Granger causality test methods toquantitatively analyze the relationship between world import demand and Chinese exporttrade of poultry products, the results showed that there is cause-effect relationship betweenthem. During a long time period, as long as there is1percent increase of world importvolume, there will be0.554percent corresponding increase of Chinese export volume. So,China should fully utilize the import demand space and increase potential of world poultrymarket and consider the most attractive countries as target markets, strengthen the marketinvestigation and market explore.Based on all above results, this dissertation suggested some countermeasures to keep thenormal development of Chinese poultry export trade. Firstly, to tap the total competitiveadvantage should be regarded as the core of Chinese poultry industry. Secondly, aiming atworld import demand should be main direction, and the products structure and marketstructure of poultry export should be optimized to improve the international competitivenessof export products. Thirdly, government should strengthen the regime establishment of domestic support and export stimulation, improve quality standard and inspection system ofpoultry products to consolidate the management of quality safety.