| Potato is widely grown all over the world,and is also an important food and cash crop in China.Against today's background of economic globalization,China is actively participating international trade and international competition on potato products while meeting the domestic market needs for potato products.This paper makes an overall evaluation of international competitiveness of China's potato products through measuring potato products' international competitiveness of both China and other trading powers,and through analyzing the dynamic evolution characteristics of potato products' international competitiveness in past two decades(1999-2018).This paper analyzes the effect of competitiveness and other factors on China's export of potato products by an empirical analysis of the internal mechanism of the growth of China's potato trade in past two decades.Finally,based on the four major types of potato products(fresh or refrigerated potatoes,frozen potatoes,non-vinegar-made frozen potatoes and non-vinegar-made unfrozen potatoes)exported by China and the corresponding exporting countries,this paper reveals the factors influencing the potential supply and demand capacity of China and the exporting countries,and estimates the actual trade potential of four types of potato products exported by China using the model-simulated trade value.The main findings are as follows:1.The total value of import and export trade of China's potato products is growing rapidly,but the share in the world market is small,and the structure of export products is unreasonable.During the years between 1999 and 2018,the growth rate of China's import and export of potato products has far exceeded that of the world trade value.However,in terms of the trade value,China's share of potato products' export value is still small,accounting for only 2.03% of the world total in 2008.The export structure of China's potato products is not consistent with the demand for potatoes in the world market.The main export products are primary products.The export value of fresh or refrigerated potatoes and frozen potatoes accounted for 89.80% of the total value of exported potato products.The imported products are mainly processed products.2.In the past two decades,the international competitiveness of China's potato products keeps growing,but is still relatively week compared with that of major exporting countries.The relatively weak competitiveness is mainly reflected in the following aspects including small share of international market,little trade surplus,weak competitive advantage in production efficiency,and large increase in producer's price due to rapid increase in production cost for potato producers.There are differences in the performance and changes of the competitiveness of the four major exported potato products in China.From 1999 to 2018,the market share of fresh potatoes or refrigerated potato has increased from 0.67% to 8.61%,their revealed comparative advantage(RCA)index grew from 0.07 to 0.94,comparative advantage index grew from 0.86 to 1.00;for frozen potatoes,the market share increased from 0.67% to 8.61%,RCA index grew from 0.48 to 1.11,and comparative advantage index grew from-0.21 to 1.00.These numbers indicate that primary potato products have acquired a strong competitive advantage in the international market.However,the international competitiveness of non-vinegar-made frozen potato and non-vinegar-made unfrozen potato is still weak.3.According to the characteristics and development of China's potato products' export,the period between 1999 and 2018 can be divided into three stages:(1)Slowly growing stage: from 1999 to 2006.The export value of China's potato products increased by $74.6678 million.At this stage,structure effect,competitiveness effect and cross effect are all positive,and contribute 11.31%,55.51% and 33.18% respectively to China's export of potato products.Among them,the improvement of potato products' competitiveness is the most important factor leading to export increase.(2)Rapidly growing stage,from 2007 to 2014.The export value of China's potato products increased by $180.5995 million.Structure effect,competitiveness effect and cross effect contribute 21.19%,75.69% and 3.12% respectively to China's export of potato products.At this stage,the contribution rate of competitiveness effect was further improved,but the products with rapid export growth rate in China were not consistent with those with rapid import growth rate in the world market.(3)Fluctuant growth stage: from 2015 to 2018.The export value of China's potato products grew by $26.6252 million.Structure effect,competitiveness effect and cross effect contribute 178.23%,-62.49% and-15.74% respectively to China's export of potato products.The competitiveness declined sharply,severely impeding China's potato trade.But the export value maintained growing due to the increase in the demand of international market for potato products.During the past two decades,the continuously rapid growth of demand for potato products in the international market was an important factor for promoting the growth of China's potato exports.However,the export structure is not compatible with the world market demand,and is in urgent need of adjustment and improvement.4.The influencing factors of international trade of different types of potato products in China are different.(1)The factors influencing the international trade of fresh or refrigerated potato include: the economic scale of the trading countries,per capita income of the two countries,the potato production of the trading countries,the exchange rate of RMB,etc,.Among them,the per capita income of trading countries,potato production of trading countries and RMB exchange rate have negative correlation with international potato trade.(2)The factors influencing the international trade of frozen potato include: the economic scale of the two countries,the per capita income of the two countries,the spacial distance between the two countries,and whether the two countries are "Belt and Road" countries,etc,.Among them,the scale of Chinese economy has positive correlation and the rest has negative correlation with international potato trade.(3)The factors influencing the international trade of frozen potatoes that are not made or preserved by vinegar method include the economic scale of the trading countries,the per capita income of the two countries,the potato production of the two countries,the import value of substitutes,the exchange rate of RMB,etc,.Among them,the economic scale of trading countries,China's potato production and RMB exchange rate have a positive correlation and the rest has negative correlation with international potato trade.(4)The factors influencing the international trade of unfrozen potatoes that are not made or preserved by vinegar method include the economic scale of the trading countries,the per capita income of the trading countries,China's potato production,the spacial distance between the two countries,etc,.Among them,China's potato production and the spacial distance have negative correlation and and the rest has positive correlation with international potato trade.5.The trade potential of potato in China has not been brought into full play.In the past 20 years,the trade of four kinds of potato products is stable in general,that is,the trade potential of potato in China is not fully reflected,and there is still room for expansion.Among them,fresh potato or refrigerated potato showed a change from stable trade to insufficient trade with great trade potential;frozen potato and unfrozen potato made by non-vinegar method showed a generally stable trade in recent 10 years,but still with trade potential to be explored;the frozen potato made by non-vinegar method was transforming from over trade to stable trade,and there is also room for further expanding the trade in the future. |
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