Financial Forecast And Financing Planning Of Pension Strategic Reserve

In recent years,with the deepening trend of population aging in China,the old-age security system has been greatly impacted.In order to cope with the payment crisis of the pension gap during the peak period of population aging,China established the National Pension Strategic Reserve Fund(the National Social Security Fund)in 2000.Due to the short time of fund establishment,the current academic research on the scale,expenditure scope and financing methods of Pension Strategic Reserve is still lack of foresight.For the large scale of the fund and the strong pertinence of its use,if it is not planned and forecasted beforehand,there will probably be a risk that the shortage of accumulation will not be able to withstand the crisis of pension gap payment.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance for the development of China’s pension security system to study the financial prediction and financing planning of the Pension Strategic Reserve and to determine the target fund scale,expenditure planning and the amount of funds invested in different financing channels for the Pension Strategic Reserve at different stages in the future.This paper uses the method of system dynamics modeling to construct the system dynamics model of Pension Strategic Reserve demand,and simulates the operation status of basic pension insurance fund and Pension Strategic Reserve.On this basis,financial forecast and financing planning of Pension Strategic Reserve are studied,and policy suggestions are put forward for the construction of Pension Strategic Reserve System in China based on the research results.The main research contents and results are as follows:1.The basic pension insurance and strategic reserve in 2018-2065 are simulated by the system dynamics model.The simulation results show: that there will be a gap in basic pension insurance for urban workers in 2029,and the peak period of pension gap payment will be in 2055-2061.If the current rate of capital investment growth is maintained,the Pension Strategic Reserve will be deficit in 2036,even if the release time is delayed.2.According to the trend of pension gap,the growth model of Pension Strategic Reserve is designed and its financial forecast is made.The results of financial forecast show: that under the condition of synchronous growth of strategic reserve and gap,the target fund scale of Pension Strategic Reserve should reach 51.96 trillion in 2028 before the gap appears and 161.85 trillion in 2055 before the peak period of gap payment arrives,and the average annual growth rate of fund input should be maintained at 23.03%.To alleviate the pressure of funds allocation from the central government,this paper presents that strategic reserve can be expended according to 5/7,1/2 and 1/3 of the gap respectively.At this time,the average annual growth rate of capital investment needs to be maintained at 18.08%,17.54% and 11.09% respectively.3.Aiming at the annual capital demand in financial forecast,this paper puts forward three financing channels: central financial allocation,state-owned share dividend and state-owned capital operating budget expenditure.And the financing plan of the Pension Strategic Reserve under different conditions is made: when the gap is filled in full,with the peak period of gap payment passing,the proportion of capital invested by the three financing channels basically maintained at 63%,27% and 10%;when the Pension Strategic Reserve is expended according to the gap of 5/7,1/2 and 1/3,the proportion of funds borne by the central financial allocation will decrease,while the proportion of funds borne by the state-owned share dividend and state-owned capital operating budget expenditure will increase,and the pressure of central financial allocation will be alleviated.