Research On The Impact Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Credit Supply Of Chinese Commercial Banks

In recent years,the global political and economic environment has become more complex and volatile,and uncertainties have been increasing.Global politics and the economy will embark on a path of continuous deepening adjustment,and the uncertainty of the political and economic situation around the world continues to increase.At present,China has entered the critical period of reforming and economic restructuring,and the economy has entered the "new normal" stage.The previous economic stimulus policies need to be gradually digested.Also,New situation such as supply-side reform,environmental protection requirements,financial market supervision,and financial industry openness continue to emerge.In order to adapt to reform and development,supporting policies also need to be constantly adjusted.Against this background,China's economic policy uncertainty has increased significantly.As an important intermediary institution in the financial system,the Chinese banking industry plays an irreplaceable role in promoting economic development and stabilizing social order.Bank credit plays an important role in supporting the development of the real economy.Therefore,it is urgent to study whether policy uncertainty will affect the supply of credit of commercial banks.This will help the banking industry to understand more deeply the impact of economic policy uncertainty,conduct more scientific and prudent monitoring and management,and promote the banking industry's healthy and long-term development in China.This paper mainly studies the impact of economic uncertainty on credit supply of commercial banks in China through theoretical research and empirical research.Firstly,the paper discusses the research background and significance,research content,and put forward the innovation and shortcomings.Secondly,the paper reviews and combs the domestic and foreign literature on economic policy uncertainty and the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and bank credit.Thirdly based on literature combing,this paper further studies and analyzes related theories and deduces the transmission channels of economic policy uncertainty.Finally,this paper proposes transmission path model and empirical model of economic policy uncertainty,and draws the conclusions of this paper and proposes relevant policy recommendations.Through the research of this paper,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)Economic policy uncertainty will ultimately affect the supply of bank credit from corporate channel and banking channel.(2)Economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on the credit supply of commercial banks in China.When macroeconomic uncertainty increases,commercial banks will tend to reduce credit supply.(3)Compared with state-owned banks,economic policy uncertainty has a greater impact on non-state banks.This paper puts forward the following suggestions from three perspectives of government,central bank and commercial banks:(1)Government should effectively adapt to the economic restructuring,scientifically demonstrate and evaluate the policy impact,and improve the efficiency of capital market operation;(2)Central bank should ensure financial stability,pay attention to individual differences,and clearly implement regulatory responsibilities;(3)Commercial banks should improve their theoretical understanding,financial innovation ability and risk management level.