Tax Revenue Forecast Under Medium-term Rolling Budget

The medium-term budget framework,which extends the annual budget from one financial year to multiple financial years over time,requires that the overall budget cycle remain within 3-5 years as the actual implementation of the budget continues to roll back and down on a continuous basis and is constantly adjusted and amended in the light of changes in the economic situation and policy changes in the current period.The implementation of medium-term financial planning management is a requirement to deepen the reform of fiscal and taxation system and establish a modern financial system.and accurate tax revenue forecast is one of the most important protection in the medium-term fiscal revenue budget,under the requirements of the "opinions on the implementation of medium-term financial Planning management",the analysis of tax revenue forecast must be closely integrated with the economic and social development situation and regional development characteristics,and constantly adjust in the actual budget implementation.This paper introduces five economic indexes,including GDP,tax revenue,fixed assets investment,fiscal expenditure and residents ' consumption level,taking the data of Beijing from 1997 to 2017 as a sample,and according to the analysis of self-vector regression model,gets the initial forecast value in the next five years,and explains the prediction results.This paper makes a brief interpretation of the policy under the background of the current state tax reduction and reduction fee,and adjusts the forecast results in the light of the preferential policies of the main taxes,and puts forward that the forecast results should be constantly adjusted and revised in the course of the implementation of the budget under the requirement of the medium-term rolling budget,so as to ensure its accuracy.In addition,this paper makes income forecast to all key industries in Beijing through GM(1,1)model,the error is relatively small,and makes a brief introduction and analysis of the current tax burden of key industries in Beijing.Beijing tax revenue rolling forecast needs to be based on quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis,in order to better promote the process of medium-term rolling budget.