Research On The Fiscal Risk Exposure And Constraint Of PPP Investment

Along with the economic pressure,public finance is overwhelmed.PPP mode is a new mode to provide public services in China in recent years.Its vigorous development provides new ideas for the supply of public services in China.The government originally intended to reduce fiscal pressure by relying on PPP investment,but when the system construction could not catch up with the speed of PPP investment,many problems emerged in PPP investment in China,which also contained explicit or implicit fiscal risks.Therefore,it is urgent to control the fiscal risks of PPP investment.Firstly,combing with the characteristics of PPP investment in China,this paper reveals the existing problems of fiscal risks of PPP investment in China at present: the budget system is not perfect,the payment mode relies too much on financial funds,the selection of social capital and the risk allocation is not reasonable;At the same time,it comprehensively analyzes fiscal risk from the macro,medium,micro level.Then,on the basis of the classification of fiscal risks,hierarchical analysis is carried out to identify the most important fiscal risk points.Finally,risk sharing is studied on the basis of risk identification: in the initial stage of cooperation,the static game model is established,and the co-risk and non-co-risk are determined by the risk preference coefficient.In the later stage of cooperation between participants,a risk sharing model with asymmetric participant status under incomplete information is established for the shared risks,so as to reduce the sharing proportion for risks.The following basic conclusions can be drawn from the comprehensive text: first,in order to realize the sustainable development of PPP in China,its fiscal risk should not be underestimated.Second,the analytic hierarchy process results show that explicit paid-for risk and contingent guaranteed risk are the most typical and important fiscal risks in PPP investment.Their weights are 0.0911.Third,in the game between public and private,although the public sector is in a strong position,it still takes more risks than the private sector.The main reason is that the participation of the private sector is not very active at present.The government should not only ensure the continuous provision of public services,but also ensure the quality of its supply.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the participation rate of private enterprises and strengthen the competition among enterprises.Fourth,the public sector need to spend more money to fully understand the information of the private sector before the negotiation in order to choose the most appropriate capital.It can reduce the risk bearing ratio and thus reduce the fiscal risk.In view of the above research conclusions,five policies suggested:(1)accelerate PPP legislation to prevent macro risks;(2)construct the whole life cycle supervision mechanism to constrain the meso-risk;(3)strengthen the demonstration of financial bearing capacity and guard against payment risks and guaranteed risk;(4)determine the reasonable risk allocation ratio and optimize the risk allocation mechanism;(5)encourage private enterprises to participate actively and improve the participation rate of private enterprises.