Impact Of The Implementation Of The Sales Restriction Policy On Housing Prices

Housing is a scarce special commodity with dual attributes of consumption and investment.Housing price rise too fast has been the government,academia,the general public pay close attention to the problem.In the past decade,the government introduced a series of control measures to curb the rise of housing prices,such as the introduction of the purchase restriction policy in 2014 and the resumption of the withdrawal.In 2017,Chinese governments at all levels changed their thinking,strengthened coordinated development from both sides of supply and demand,issued the real estate sales restriction policy,and adhered to the strategic positioning of"housing not speculation",aiming to "stabilize land price,housing price and expectation",guide price expectation to return to rationality,and make the overall stable and healthy development of the real estate market.How effective the implementation of the real estate restriction policy is,whether it has the effect of stabilizing the housing price,is the question to be answered in this paper.In the theoretical analysis,this paper first starts from the real estate market failure,analysis of the necessity of government regulation of the real estate market,introduces the real estate price "self-support theory",analyzes the mechanism of the restriction policy to regulate the housing price,and provides theoretical support for the empirical research of this paper.In the empirical analysis,after descriptive analysis of the month-on-month growth trend of new commercial housing and second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities before and after the implementation of the sales restriction policy,this paper further studies the housing price changes in cities of different levels and focuses on observing and studying the housing price changes in GuangZhou and ShenZhen.In view of the differences between different real estate markets,this paper divides the real estate market into the new commercial housing market and the second-hand housing market,and USES the original price data to make market tests respectively to investigate whether the policies have the effect of restraining the rise of housing prices.On this basis,the month-on-month price index data are used to continue to test the effect of policies on housing prices of different floor areas,and further investigate whether the restriction policy has the effect of restraining the excessively rapid rise of housing prices.This paper selects the monthly data related to the new commercial housing and second-hand housing market in the main districts of GuangZhou and ShenZhen,two first-tier cities,from May 2016 to July 2018,and USES the PSM-DID estimation method to conduct an empirical study on the impact of the sales restriction policy on housing price.The research conclusions of this paper mainly include three points:first,the housing restriction policy can restrain the housing price from rising too fast;Secondly,the implementation of the sales restriction policy can curb the housing price rise in the short term.Thirdly,the effect of the sales restriction policy is different in different markets.From the empirical study,the effect of the policy on the new commercial housing market is more obvious,especially on the large and medium-sized housing.Most cities control the supply of the real estate market by implementing the restriction policy,reduce the housing speculation,and guide the real estate market back to a reasonable expectation.