Research On The Supply And Demand Of Real Estate Market In Panjin City Based On Disequilibrium Theory

Since 1998,our country has turned from the welfare housing to the commodity housing,the real estate has got rapid development and has become one of the mainstay industries of the national economy.But in recent years,the supply and demand of the real estate market is in unbalanced state which contributed the problem that people difficultly to buy a house,and also hinder the healthy development of the national economy. With the rapid development of Panjin City real estate market, and the price of commercial housing rising,the crux is highlighting ceaselessly which is hidden under the prosperity surface of the real estate market.For example:the disequilibrium location of supply and demand,the disequilibrium total of supply and demand,the disequilibrium structure of supply and demand.This article is based on the non-equilibrium theory to analysis and study the disequilibrium state of Panjin City real estate market.First,using the SPSS software to conduct correlation analysis of the various factors which influencing the Commercial housing supply and demand and weed out the weaker correlation factor; screening the number of the urban population,the total number of households,the per capita living area,the per capita disposable income,which as the key factors of the real estate market demand; screening construction industry GDP. development and investment of the real estate,the number of units of enterprise that engaged in the construction industry,the number of people employed in construction industry,the coefficient of supply and demand relations,the cost of house completion,the index of residents living consumption price,the ratio of urban population and so on,which as the key factors of the supply and demand in the real estate market.Then,according to the the data that the the key factors of the supply and demand of real estate market in 2005-2012,using the Gray GM (1,1) predictive model,building predictive model,the key factors of supply and demand in Panjin City real estate market;predicting the numerical value of the key factors of Panjin City real estate market supply and demand in 2013-2015 selecting the indicators such as the sales area,sales prices,per capita disposable income,investment amount of the real estate and so on,which as the the factors to measure the disequilibrium state.Finally,according to the disequilibrium theory.building a disequilibrium econometric mode in the polymerization conditions of Panjin City real estate market;selecting the indicators such as the sales area,sales prices.per capita disposable income,investment amount of the real estate and so on,which as the the factors to measure the disequilibrium state.Obtaining the non-equilibrium values for each year of Panjin City real estate market by data processing for the key factors of Panjin City in 2008-2015.And analyzing the non-equilibrium values of each year,providing theoretical and data guidance for policy control by the disequilibrium degrees of Panjin real estate market in 2013-2015.The first chapter is introduction,from the research background and significance to describe the universality and the grim situation of disequilibrium phenomenon in the real estate market,and introduce the research status of the real estate which non-equilibrium at home and abroad.And also explain the ideas and methods of non-equilibrium study in Panjin City real estate market.The second chapter is the overview of the disequilibrium theory and model of supply and demand for the real estate.Firstly,introducing the production and the implementation process of the disequilibrium theory;Secondly, introducing the concept of the concept of supply and demand,the effective of supply and demand,price signals,the number of signals,etc,in the disequilibrium theory;finally,introducing disequilibrium econometric models:disequilibrium econometric models of the minimum principle model and market conditions.The fourth chapter analyzes the factors that affect the the supply and demand of the real estate market in Panjin.Using Spss to screen the key factors,then using the gray GM (1,1) forecasting mode to predict the value of market supply and demand in next three years.Panjin real estate market supply and demand factors, the fourth chapter analysis using the SPSS screen out the key influencing factors, and then using grey GM (1,1) prediction model, predict the future three years of market supply and demand forecast.Chapter five is the core chapters of this article,according to the non-equilibrium econometric models which is in the market polymerization conditions,Calculating the effective total of demand and supply in the markets,finally results for non-equilibrium value of the Panjin City real estate market in 2005-2012 And in accordance with the predicted market value of the next three years,obtaining the degree of market disequilibrium in next three years.Chapter six is the conclusion and recommendation.Deeply analyze from three aspects,total of supply and demand,market structure and market price.And propose targeted advice,that can make the supply and demand of Panjin City real estate market develop balanced and steady.