Disequilibrium Analysis Of China's Real Estate Market

Since 1990's, especially with the change of the distribution system of housing in China, which is from a welfare distribution to a monetary and commercial distribution, the real estate industry in our country has made rapid progress.The real estate industry is one of the pillar industries of national economy.Many facts abroad demonstrate that the ordered development of the real estate industry may promote economic growth and bring about large wealth to the country, while its deformed development does great harm to the whole national economy.In this paper, first we used the input-output table of 42 industries of 2002 in China to analyze the relationship between real estate and the other industrial departments in chapter 2. The result shows that the other industries of national economy are greatly driven by the input of real estate. The development of the other industries depend greatly on the development of real estate. China's real estate has great impact on the development of china's economy.Through the analysis of the chapter 2,we know the real estate plays a decisive role in developing national economy, continuing to develop the real estate industry becomes a vital means of expanding domestic demand and boosting economic growth.so we should promote sound ,stable and balanced development of the real estate.However, recently, the real estate market existents the total and structure disequilibrium of the supply and demand such as higher vacancy rates, high prices, the proportion of uncoordinated and irrational investment structure. In the next section we analyzed the disequilibrium of the supply and demand of the real estate market. This section is central to our study. In this part, Firstly,we introduced the basic contents of real estate ,disequilibrium theory and model, disequilibrium econometric model in the polymerization condition market. Scendly ,we used the data of 1987-2007 to establish the total disequilibrium of real estate demand and supply model .In the demand model ,we introduce dummy variable to establish the model of quadratic curve to show the influence of real estate market reform in 1998 on the real estate demand.Through the demand and supply model, we calculated effective demand and supply and disequilibrium degree.We discovered the fluctuation of disequilibrium degree can effectively reflect the actual fluctuation of the supply and demand of our country real estate, and found that our country real estate supply and demand is decided by its price, the per capital GDP, the real estate investment cost and the index of building ,which provides the reference for the government macroeconomic regulation. At last ,We analyzed the structual disequilibrium of real estate market, because of limited data we only analyzed the data in 1997-2006.The result showed that the structual disequilibrium is mainly existed in the housing market. The house of low price is overdemand and the house of high price is oversupply.We used the cross section data in 2006 to calculate housing market products structure's diverse influence strength to housing price through building up econometric model.The research results showed that absurdity in housing structure caused high housing price.The model can also explain current phemomenon of real estate price sliding.