Research On The Sustainability Of Food Security In Main Grain Producing Areas Of China Based On Ecological Footprint

Major grain producing areas are facing increasing constraints from agricultural resources and ecological environment,and sustainable food security concept is needed to ensure food security.At first,this paper analysis the present situation of food safety in major grain producing areas,based on the ecological footprint model to measure the ecological security in food production,and then using the method of spatial autocorrelation analysis of grain production capacity and ecological footprint index of spatial autocorrelation,and finally build the grey system prediction GM(1,1)model to predict the grain safety and sustainability,the study found that:(1)From 2007 to 2016,while making great contributions to ensuring China's food security,major production areas were faced with severe realities,such as the approaching limit of grain yield per unit area,prominent structural problems in grain production,declining farmland area,quality degradation and ecological damage,and excessive input of pesticides and fertilizers.(2)The continuous increase of grain yield in main producing areas has aggravated the process of agricultural resource consumption and the deterioration of ecological environment.Food security is in an unsustainable deficit and is shifting from weak to strong;The ecological footprint of major grain-producing areas varies greatly from province to province and the regional distribution is not balanced.(3)In the year of study,there was no significant spatial correlation between grain production capacity in main producing areas,while the ecological footprint index of food security showed significant spatial positive correlation and spatial heterogeneity.Food production capacity and ecological footprint index showed three aggregation areas of low-high,high-high and high-low.(4)From 2017 to 2025,the ecological deficit situation of food security in major grain producing areas has been improved,from the ecological deficit to the transition of the ecological balance and ecological surplus,but only weak weak from unsustainable to sustainable state transitions,far from strong sustainable levels.