Research On The Heterogeneity Of The Relationship Between House Price And Consumption In China

Promoting residents' consumption is importance to the healthy development of china's economy,and the country attaches great importance to the work of stabilizing and expanding residents' consumption.Both the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference stressed the need to expand domestic demand and boost consumption.In this context,it is necessary to conduct a systematic study on the consumption behavior of Chinese families.In recent years,the following phenomena have existed in china's economic development:(1)The imbalance of residents' income.Although china's poverty alleviation work has achieved a major victory,the problem of resident income imbalance is still very serious.As Premier Li Keqiang said,there are still 600 million people in china who belong to the low-and middle-income class and their average annual income is less than half of the average annual income of Chinese residents.In addition,the "Chinese Household Survey Yearbook" shows that from 2003 to 2018,china's Gini coefficient exceeded the "warning line"(0.382)of the income distribution gap,that is,the income gap of china's residents is at a relatively high level.(2)There is a big difference in housing prices between regions.china has a vast territory,and the level of housing prices varies greatly among different provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions).For example,the average sales price of housing in Beijing in 2018 was more than 7 times that of Guizhou.(3)The continued rise of housing prices.Since the implementation of the housing commercialization reform in 1998,the average sales price of residential houses in china has continued to rise.As of 2018,it has risen from 1,854 yuan per square meter to 8,544 yuan per square meter.(4)Weak consumption growth of residents.Statistics show that the ratio of consumption to income of urban residents in china dropped from 79.59% to 66.53% from 2000 to 2018.So what is the relationship between housing prices and consumption? Different from the existing research,the article starts from the perspective of resident income imbalance and the difference in housing prices between regions,and conducts a theoretical analysis on the impact of social status seeking on family housing demand and the heterogeneous decomposition of the relationship between housing prices and consumption.First,the imbalance of residents' income and non-independent preferences are included in the analysis framework of maximizing the utility of intertemporal consumption,which proves that imbalance of residents' income can stimulate household housing demand through housing comparison.Secondly,it analyzes the heterogeneity of the relationship between housing prices and consumption based on the life cycle-persistent income hypothesis and the status quo of china's residents' income imbalances and differences in housing prices between regions.Among them,the income imbalance of residents affects the housing affordability,which in turn leads to significant differences in the housing ownership rate,housing assets,and multi-suite ownership ratio of different income groups,and ultimately leads to obvious differences impacts of housing prices on the consumption of different groups.The difference in housing prices between regions means that there are differences in the average house purchase pressure faced by households in different regions,which ultimately leads to the regional heterogeneity of the relationship between housing prices and consumption.Based on the above theoretical analysis,the article mainly uses the data of the China Family Panel Studies to measure the heterogeneity of the relationship between housing prices and consumption from a quantitative perspective.The main research contents are as follows:(1)In order to clarify that housing has status attributes for Chinese urban families,the article conducts an empirical test on the status attributes of housing on the basis of considering the difference in housing prices between regions and the impact of the housing area of ??the reference group.This paper uses the regression analysis of the panel-ordered Logit model to confirm that housing is a status commodity,which can represent an individual's social status.This laid the foundation for an in-depth study of the household's housing needs.(2)Based on the imbalance of residents' income,an empirical study was carried out on the household's housing demand based on the difference in housing prices between regions.Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and the China Family Finance Survey(CHFS),I used different indicators and data to empirically analyze the relationship between the housing comparison caused by the income imbalance and the household's housing demand.In the context of the limited supply of residential land,the expansion of housing demand will inevitably lead to rising housing prices.In addition,there are obvious differences in the willingness of different groups to buy houses.These have laid a solid foundation for quantitative research on the relationship between housing prices and consumption.(3)From the perspective of resident income imbalance,the relationship between housing prices and consumption is decomposed into heterogeneity and homogeneity based on the difference in housing prices between regions and the rate of regional economic growth.Taking the family house purchase pressure coefficient as the threshold variable,the panel threshold model is used to conduct a systematic empirical study on the heterogeneity of the relationship between housing prices and consumption.On this basis,the robustness is tested by changing the value of trim in panel threshold regression and redefining the urban sample by using household registered residence attributes.In addition,considering that the panel threshold model requires data to be completely balanced so that the loss of sample observations is large,this paper also uses the panel fixed effects model to verify the heterogeneity and homogeneity of the impact of housing prices on consumption from another perspective.The main conclusions of the empirical research of the article are:(1)Housing can represent an individual's social status.Compared with the average housing area of ??surrounding population,the larger housing area of the family,the greater probability that the individual's self-evaluated social status will be higher.(2)The housing comparison caused by the imbalance of residents' income is one of the important driving factors of family housing demand.With the widening of the income gap,all income groups have expanded their housing demand based on social status comparison,and families with no houses or poor living conditions are more willing to buy houses.(3)Affected by the imbalance of residents' income,the relationship between housing prices and consumption exists household heterogeneity.When the family house purchase pressure coefficient is less than 15.7315,there is a significant positive correlation between the two;when the family house purchase pressure coefficient exceeds the threshold,there is a significant negative correlation between the two.(4)There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of housing prices on consumption,and the fundamental reason is that there are obvious differences in the level of housing prices in various regions(provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions).(5)The acceleration of regional economic growth is not only closely related to the rise of house prices,but also inseparable from the growth of residents' consumption.It is a common factor affecting the two.If we ignore the influence of this variable,the wealth effect brought by the rise of house prices will be seriously overestimated.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)in the study of family housing demand,the imbalance of residents' income and non independent preferences are incorporated into the analysis framework of intertemporal consumption utility maximization theory,which improves the theoretical analysis of the relationship between social status seeking and family housing demand.(2)In the study of the relationship between housing prices and consumption,the common factors,the imbalance of residents' income and the regional differences of housing prices are included in the analysis framework,which broadens the research ideas on the relationship between housing prices and consumption.(3)The pressure coefficient of family house purchase is constructed,it can measure the income gap within the same region,and it is comparable for families in different regions,which enriches the construction of the pressure index of house purchase.(4)Taking the pressure coefficient of family house purchase as the threshold variable,this paper separates the family heterogeneity,regional heterogeneity and homogeneity of the impact of house price on consumption through empirical research,and analyzes the relationship between house price and consumption more accurately.