Research On The Development Of Vegetable Industry In Henan Province Based On Grey Model Technology

Under the background of the country's continuous promotion of agricultural supply-side structural reform and agricultural modernization,the vegetable industry is an important contribution to the agricultural value-added in Henan Province.Vegetable production capacity not only greatly satisfies the consumption needs of the residents in the province,but also greatly complements the gap in the vegetable consumption market in neighboring provinces.However,at the present stage,there are still problems in the process of vegetable production in Henan Province,such as imbalanced supply and demand structure,unreasonable allocation of production factors,uncoordinated development of small production and large market,and hidden dangers of vegetable quality and safety.The article deeply analyzes the factors affecting vegetable production based on the above problems,and based on the main factors,the production efficiency and yield prediction of vegetables in Henan Province are calculated.At the same time,it puts forward corresponding suggestions for the existing problems,thus promoting the double multiplication of the quality and quantity of vegetables in Henan Province.The article considers the gray attribute existing in the vegetable production process,so it mainly combines the gray system related method theory to quantitatively analyze the vegetable production process in Henan Province.Firstly,based on the grey correlation analysis model,the influencing factors in the vegetable production process in Henan Province and various regions were quantitatively analyzed.The results showed that the input of vegetable planting area,mechanical operation cost and tool material fee had a higher impact on vegetable yield in Henan Province.The input level of chemical fertilizer,agricultural film and pesticide fee had the second highest impact on vegetable yield in Henan Province.The level of labor cost input has a relatively low impact on vegetable production in Henan Province.The vegetable planting area,pesticide fees,fertilizer costs and agricultural film fees have a relatively high impact on vegetable production in five regions of central Henan,and the impact of labor costs on vegetable production in various regions is still at a low level.Secondly,the production factors with higher impact on vegetable yield in Henan Province were selected as input indicators,and the annual vegetable yield was used as the output index.The relative effectiveness of vegetable production efficiency in Henan Province was evaluated based on the grey DEA evaluation model.The results showed that the comprehensive production efficiency of vegetables in Henan Province increased year by year from 2011 to 2017,and the vegetable production efficiency reached a relatively optimal state in 2017.The results of research on vegetable production efficiency in 18 cities of Henan Province show that the comprehensive efficiency of vegetable production in Anyang is optimal from 2016 to 2017.The productivity of other cities has not been optimal,but it is basically in a state of rising volatility.From the perspective of regional average production efficiency,the vegetable production efficiency in the north of Henan is relatively high.The vegetable production efficiency in the eastern Henan,western Henan and central Henan is second,and the vegetable production efficiency in the south of Henan is relatively low.Finally,in order to more clearly grasp the dynamic evolution trend of vegetable production and various production factors in Henan Province from 2018 to 2021,the paper predicts the changes of vegetable yield and production factors in Henan Province based on the metabolic GM(1,1)model.The forecast results show that vegetable production in Henan Province is increasing from 2018 to 2021.In 2021,vegetable production will exceed 79 million tons.Vegetable production in cities from 2018 to 2021 also showed a volatility,with Zhoukou's vegetable production ranking first in 18 cities in 2021.In 2021,vegetable production in eastern Henan will exceed 31 million tons,ranking first in five regions.Vegetable production in southern Henan will reach 21 million tons,ranking second.The dynamic analysis of production factors shows that the trend of vegetable planting area,labor cost and mechanical operation fee from 2018 to 2021 is consistent with the trend of vegetable and vegetable production in Henan Province,showing an increasing trend year by year.But the input levels of fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural film and irrigation fees are decreasing year by year.This result is consistent with the requirements for high efficiency,quality and low consumption in the process of agricultural modernization.It also indicates that the level of vegetable production in Henan Province is steadily moving towards agricultural modernization in the future.