The Research On Wind Power Cost Forecast And Pricing Game Model

Energy is the key to a country’s development.With the continuous consumption of the primary energy such as coal,oil and gas,it causes the serious environmental pollution and a hidden danger for the increasingly serious energy crisis.At the same time,renewable energy technologies which include wind power,hydropower and PV become more and more mature and provide new solutions to solving energy problems and environmental problems.On the other hand,the wind power pricing is still at the stage of benchmarking price and no market mechanism has been introduced in China.There are still many researches on the pricing mechanism of wind power for us to study.Based on this,this paper mainly carried out the following work.First of all,the wind power pricing policy and reserch on the wind power cost in China and abroad is summarized,and their advantages and disadvantages are compared in the paper.Second,the situation and utilization of wind resource in China are studied.Combining the installed capacity and new installed capacity of wind power,we study the reasons for the high rate of abandoned wind in some areas of China,and give suggestions for solving them.Third,based on the above research content,the time series model and grey prediction theory are used to predict the long-term wind power load.And we can conclude that the time series model is more accurate for the monthly load forecasting and the gray prediction theory is more accurate for annual load forecasting.Forth.combined with the wind power load forecasting results,the LCOE method is used to construct the wind power cost model.And the model can calculate the cost accurately to some extent.According to the results of M area,the sensitivity analysis shows that the initial investment and utilization hours are the two most important factors which affect the wind power cost.Finally,according to the summarization of the development and characteristics of the power market,the wind power bilateral trading market is built combined with the above research.And the Kernel method is used to distribute wind power income.On the basis of the distribution result,considering the contract execution risk of wind power,the cooperative game theory and Shapley value method is used to redistribute the wind power grid-connected revenue.We use ANP to adjust the result of the profit distribution as well in this paper.T he validity of the pricing model can be verified by a combination of examples.Based on the former research,this paper constructs the market trading mechanism and pricing model which is suitable for grid connection of wind power generation.The results of examples prove that the model has a certain guiding effect on the wind power pricing.This paper makes up for the gaps in the relevant research fields to some extent.