Import Structure And Economic Growth

By constructing a theoretical model and analyzing the mechanism of the effect of import structure on economic growth,this paper takes the global sample as the research object and uses the 2SLS method,empirically analyzing the effects of the scale of imports,the structure of imported goods,the structure of imported technologies,the concentration of imports and the diversification of imports on economic growth.The results show that:(1)the import of capital goods has a positive effect on economic growth,and the import of intermediate products significantly inhibits economic growth.The import of consumer goods has not played a significant role in promoting economic growth.After the financial crisis,the import of consumer goods significantly promoted economic growth.Imports of consumer goods in developing countries have a significant positive effect on economic growth,while developed countries have the opposite.The effect of the structure of imported goods on the economic growth of OECD countries and non-OECD countries varies greatly;(2)The import of medium low and above technique products can bring about more obvious technology spillover effects,and the promotion effect on economic growth is also obvious.After the financial crisis,the import of high-tech products significantly promoted economic growth;in addition to low-tech products,the import of the other three technical structural products has a positive effect on the economic growth of developing countries,and only the import of high-tech products can promote the economy of developed countries.The technical structure has roughly the same impact on the economic growth of OECD and non-OECD countries;(3)The increase in the concentration of import market has a positive effect on economic growth,and the concentration of import market and the concentration of imported products do not affect each other.Before and after the financial crisis,the effect of import market concentration on economic growth did not change significantly.For developing and developed countries,OECD countries and non-OECD countries,the effect of import market concentration on economic growth is still significant;(4)the diversification effect of imports leading to an increase in the supply of domestic goods,which can increase trade income and promote a country,s economic growth.After the financial crisis,the effects of import diversification on economic growth are no longer significant.Import diversification is conducive to economic growth in developing countries and has no significant impact on economic growth in developed countries.Import diversification has a significant role in promoting economic growth in OECD countries and non-OECD countries.Therefore,in order to better promote economic growth from the perspective of import structure,combined with its own trade characteristics,China needs to take the following measures:We must folly realize that expanding import trade is not the fundamental purpose of China's economic development,but serves China's economic development.A means to maintain a steady increase in exports while paying more attention to imports and appropriately expanding the scale of imports in order to give full play to the long-term role of import scale in economic growth;not only to increase the import share of capital goods,but also to rationally select those imported and absorbed by enterprises.The matching of intermediate products,effectively control the import share of consumer goods,but also increase the import of low-and-medium-tech,medium-tech,high-tech products,reduce the import of low-tech products with unclear technical characteristics,and also strive to improve human capital.At the same time,strengthen the training of human capital,and fully introduce high-end technical talents.Only in this way,the ability of industrial enterprises to digest,absorb,and imitate advanced technologies can be improved,and technology introduction can truly become technological progress;choose to import from a country with a relatively concentrated export market and implement an import diversification strategy,the government must strategically encourage and promote Chinese companies to adopt joint procurement and centralized procurement to avoid the risk of import prices.