Study On The Reasonability Of Import And Export Commodity Structure Of Shandong Province

Import and export commodity structure is essential to the country or region’s trade and economic development. This dissertation evaluates the reasonability of the import and export commodity structure of Shandong province on the basis of that the import and export commodity structure whether can promote the regional economic growth or not and the import and export commodity structure whether can improve the industrial structure or not, and the aim is to determine the rationality of the import and export commodity structure through empirical analysis, and finally propose countermeasures to optimize the import and export commodity structure of Shandong province.Firstly, this dissertation analysis the status of import and export commodity structure and the development trend of import and export commodity structure in the last decades deeply. The results find that the export commodity structure of Shandong province has a good improvement, and the value of the high-tech product’s export and the mechanical product’s export is increasing year by year. But the import commodity structure still has some shortcomings, the technology and key equipment were imported some less.Secondly, this dissertation uses grey correlation analysis method to calculate the relationship between different kinds of commodities and the economic growth of Shandong province. The results find that the positive effect of high-tech products’ export on the economic growth is bigger than the positive effect of textile and garment products’ export on the economic growth, and the high-tech products’ import and the mechanical products’ import has obvious positive effect on economic growth.Thirdly, this dissertation uses the co integration test and the granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the import and export of primary products and the primary industry, meanwhile uses the same method to analyze the relationship between the import and export of industrial products and the secondary industry of Shandong province. The results find that the positive effects of the export of primary products on the primary industry and the export of manufactured products on the secondary industry were not obvious. Also find that the import of primary products has a counteractive affect on the primary industry and so does the import of manufactured products to the secondary industry.Finally, according to the empirical analysis results, the dissertation finds out the unreasonable place in the development of import and export commodity structure of Shandong province. The dissertation also offers some suggestions for optimizing the import and export commodity structure of Shandong province.