Influencing Factors And Linkage Analysis Of Housing Prices In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

For a long time,housing prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region have been the focus of attention of the government and the public.After the implementation of the BTH regional cooperation strategy,how to maintain the stable development of the residential market is an unavoidable issue,and it is an important task of the synergy strategy.The purpose of this paper is to study the development of the residential market in the BTH region and the factors affecting residential prices.In addition to the traditional influencing factors: supply,economy,policy,etc.,with the continuous deepening of coordinated development,the interaction between regions has become increasingly prominent,which has become an important factor affecting the housing prices in the BTH region.However,most of the literature on the linkage effect of housing prices in the current study area is based on the whole country.Most of them are sampled by sub-provincial cities or large and medium-sized cities.There are few literatures for in-depth research in a certain area,and the prices in the BTH region are There are only two articles on linkage effects.Therefore,this paper focuses on house price fluctuations after the synergy strategy,first analyzes the influencing factors of housing prices in the BTH region and its spillover effects between cities,and then measures the fluctuation direction and effect degree of the house price linkage effect in the BTH region.The main research contents are as follows: Firstly,the housing price and the development of the residential market are described,and the factors affecting the residential price in the BTH region are analyzed.The analysis believes that policy,economy,population,income,regional interactions and individual factors have an impact on housing prices.Second,further quantitative analysis of the impact of various factors on the city's housing prices and the spillover effects of surrounding cities.Taking the spatial panel data of the BTH region as a sample from 2006 to 2017,the spatial Dubin model was established.The results show that the increase in population,economy,income and consumption of the city has a positive effect on the city's housing prices,while the prices of the surrounding cities.There is inhibition;the increase in land supply in this city has a restraining effect on housing prices in this city.It is concluded that the population and industry have a siphon effect in the BTH region and are highly dependent on space.Thirdly,the vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the linkage effect of housing prices in BTH region.The results show that there is directionality in housing price fluctuations among cities in BTH region: Beijing has a leading role in the prices of surrounding cities,and the linkage effect only exists.Between adjacent cities,Langfang as a center of geographical location also has a guiding effect on housing prices in surrounding cities.Fourth,quantitative analysis of the linkage degree between 12 prefecture-level cities around Beijing and 11 counties and districts around Beijing,the results show that the closer the distance is,the greater the linkage effect,but the favorable policy for the price of the area around the Beijing area There is a greater degree of impact.Finally,it proposes countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects: accelerating industrial synergy and upgrading,increasing investment in economically affordable housing,refining and optimizing regional policies,and eliminating information asymmetry.It is expected to ease Beijing's non-capital functions,adjust and optimize Beijing.The urban layout and population density of the Jin-Ji region and the stable housing prices will enable the housing market in the BTH region to develop healthily.