Research On The Ripple Effect Of Housing Price In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region From The Perspective Of Coordinated Development

In recent years,the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been promoted to the height of the national economic development strategy.This undoubtedly brings a new opportunity for the development of the real estate industry in the ring capital area.With the continuous promotion of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy,the flow and allocation of resources are more smooth and convenient,which lays a foundation for the correlation of housing price fluctuations,deepens the interaction and penetration of inter-city price fluctuations,and thus produces the ripple effect of housing prices.From the perspective of theoretical basis and reality,this paper takes 13 cities in BeijingTianjin-Hebei as the research object,and systematically analyses the mechanism of the linkage of urban house prices,that is,the causes of the ripple effect of house prices in different cities.Under the strategic background of the coordinated development of BeijingTianjin-Hebei,this paper first examines the correlation between the strategy and the housing prices of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and then empirically tests whether the strategy has significant impact on the fluctuation of housing prices in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei from a statistical point of view by means of variance analysis.Secondly,the modified gravity model is used to calculate the ripple effect matrix of urban housing prices.Furthermore,the network structure characteristics of the linkage of housing prices are investigated by means of social network analysis method.Finally,the VECM model was introduced to analyze the influencing factors of spatial correlation of housing prices among cities.Through empirical research on ripple effect of house price fluctuation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the results show that:(1)The correlation of housing prices in 13 cities presents a complex network structure.The network density and its associated degree have increased with time,and the hierarchically strict network structure gradually loosened.The network efficiency tends to be decline,and the stability of the network is constantly improved.(2)According to the analysis of the block model in spatial clustering,in the linkage network of urban housing price,four cities such as Beijing belong to the broker block,three cities such as Tianjin belong to bidirectional spillover block,Hengshui and Xingtai belong to the net beneficial block,and four cities such as Tangshan belong to the expected spill block.(3)In the long run,there is a equilibrium relationship between the housing price linkage effect and the regional economic strength and the income level of the residents.From the short-term VECM model estimation results,when the fluctuation of the house price linkage effect deviates from the long-term equilibrium orbit,the dynamic relationship between the variables will be reversed back to the equilibrium orbit with the adjustment strength of 2.551.(4)The coordinated development strategy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is the main reason for promoting the spatial correlation of housing prices.Other factors are second.In addition,the changes in housing price linkage effect are weakened by the impact of its own impact,and it gradually strengthened by other factors.Through this study,it is suggested that the government should continue to pay more attention to the real estate market in large and medium-sized cities,especially in the first-tier cities and the second-tier cities which have more and more influence in recent years.At the same time,it should pay full attention to the impact of regional coordinated development policies and other factors on the ripple effect of urban housing prices.Establish a fair and reasonable market system,so as to build a harmonious society of "home ownership".