Research On The Transmission Mechanism Of Financial Crisis Under International Trade Network

Since the beginning of the 21st century,economic globalization has been advancing all the way,trade liberalization has also developed with great strides,international trade has become more and more prosperous,and financial crises have also occurred frequently.This is due to the high linkage,high correlation or high similarity of the economy.The transnational phenomenon of the resulting financial crisis has attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad.Some scholars have pointed out that the changes in the financial crisis transmission mechanism have caused the financial crisis to spread like a pandemic virus,and the scale and speed of crisis transmission have become larger and faster as the degree of economic and financial integration has deepened.While affirming the positive impact of economic integration,it is also urgent to pay attention to the mechanism changes,transmission effects and how to prevent the global transmission of financial crisis.Exploring the transmission of the financial crisis under the international trade network is not only because of the networked nature of the financial crisis,but also because of the structural characteristics of the complex network that exists in the crisis network.This article is different from the general article on the global delivery of financial crises.Firstly,based on the new perspective of social network and complex network,constructing the world's 41 countries weighted and weighted trade network,and depicting the topological structure,cohesive subgroups,core-edge status of the world trade network and so on to describe the status quo and evolutionary characteristics of the trade network.Secondly,under the theoretical mechanism of the general mechanism and path of financial crisis transnational transmission,cascade amplification effect,SI model financial crisis transmission,the relationship between trade network structure and financial crisis transfer,further explores the mechanism and influencing factors of financial crisis transmission under international trade network.Finally,the regression model and exponential random graph model are used to empirically test the characteristics of financial crisis transmission in the international trade network,and propose countermeasures based on the empirical results.After theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper draws these conclusions: First,the current international trade network still exhibits strong scale-free attributes,it is a negative matching network,and there are "rich clubs" and "axes-spoke" phenomenon.Second,the classification of subgroups in the world is still inseparable from the geographical distance and political and cultural factors.The core-edge structure shows that the diferentiation of status in the world still exists,but there are more and more countries in the core position,and countries in the marginal position are gradually cut back.Third,the financial crisis will be passed between countries with high reciprocity and important export market relations,and the risk impact of countries under the international trade network is greater,manifested by the spread of the international trade network to the financial crisis.The magnifying effect,that is,the financial crisis,will pass the crisis through the international trade network to the connected countries.However,due to differences in macroeconomics,balance of payments,financial environment and other factors among countries,the ability to withstand the impact of crisis proliferation and recovery is also different,manifested by the absorption of the international trade network to the financial crisis,that is,in the international trade network,different situations of national attributes will have a certain impact on the transmission of the crisis.It provides a solution to prevent and control the transmission of financial crises.That is,countries in the network should strengthen the macroeconomic and financial systems,improve their ability to resist risks,and reduce the risk of being infected by the financial crisis.The specific measures are recommended to vigorously promote de-leveraging and control fiscal deficits and debt,and promote export market diversification.