An Analysis Of The Urban Employee Pension Insurance Fund Balance In Jiangsu Province And Fiscal Policy Advice Based On The Population Prediction Model

"Aged with support" is an important indicator to measure people's sense of well-beings and gains,and help promote the building of a harmonious socialist society.The urban employee pension insurance system is an important part of social security system in China,and its fund balance is related to the improvement of the living security and social welfare of retired employees.However,due to the aging of the population,the willingness to participate in the insurance and many other macro and micro factors,the payment pressure of urban employee pension insurance fund will be increasing,and the contradiction between income and expenditure will be more obvious.The unified account may have a deficit,which will eventually affect the normal development of urban employee pension insurance system.In order to prevent financial risks and the invisible debt risk of urban employee pension insurance funds in Jiangsu Province,the calculation of pension funds is carried out.Helping the government to adjust its policies can not only relieve the local government from exerting tremendous pressure,but also guarantee the quality of life of the retired people and promote social equity.Based on the above background,this paper takes the balance of income and expenditure of urban employee pension insurance fund as the research purpose,and the urban employee pension insurance in Jiangsu Province is the research object.The article is divided into the following parts.Firstly,the concept definition and connotation description are introduced,and the theoretical basis of the government involvement in the field of urban employee pension insurance is introduced.Based on the collected data,this paper expounds the development and operation status of the urban employee pension insurance system in Jiangsu Province.Secondly,the 2000 and 2010 census revised data is used to compile base year population complete life table,and then use the average life expectancy of Jiangsu Province to compile the forecast year life table.Using the variable parameter age shift algorithm model to predict the population of 2018-2037,lays the foundation for the establishment of a break-even model.Thirdly,building a model of urban employee pension insurance income and expenditure for different age groups forecasts the balance of income and expenditure of urban employee pension insurance funds in Jiangsu Province in the next 20 years.The calculation results show that the fund began to appear deficit and the fund gap continued to increase in 2029 without considering the financial subsidies.When considering financial subsidies,The unified account fund did not have a gap in the forecast year.Finally,based on the model actuarial results,this paper proposes targeted fiscal policy recommendations.Firstly,enhance the income capacity of urban employee pension insurance funds;Secondly,make personal accounts and reduce the burden of fund expenditure;Thirdly,strengthen supervision and management of pension funds;Fourthly,implement the delayed retirement policy to increase the willingness of the right-aged population.Based on the provincial conditions of Jiangsu Province,this article is supported by the Jiangsu Provincial Human Resources and Social Security Bureau's detailed data.Taking into account the impact of the “Comprehensive Two Children” policy and other factors on population projections,using the dynamic population complete life table method of successive years,the number of contributors and retired people in the pension fund during the target period are obtained.In addition,the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance account of Jiangsu Province is obtained,which provides the factual basis and decision-making basis for the formulation of relevant fiscal policies.