Research On The Calculation And Sustainability Of The Basic Endowment Insurance Fund For Urban Workers In Yunnan Province

After a long period of reform and perfection,China has initially established a unified old-age insurance system for urban workers,which is compatible with the market economic system and the combination of social pooling and individual accounts.But,due to the transition costs can not be effectively resolved in the short term,the system design is not perfect and the aging population and other factors.The future of China's pension payments will face a huge risk,triggering the community on the rationality of the system of widespread concern.However,the establishment and perfection of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers is helpful to ensure the basic life of the employees after retirement,to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the elderly and social stability,as well as to promote the continuous improvement of the national budget system.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the sustainable development of basic old-age insurance system for urban workers,and has a significant reference value for the future of a longer period of urban workers pension fund income and expenditure scale and its balance of payments to calculate the trend of actuarial forecast for the government ahead of the adjustment policy,and it is of great reference value to the possible problems of urban workers' pensions.This paper uses the population development model,and matlab software to forecast income and Expenditure of Basic Endowment Insurance Fund for Urban Workers in Yunnan Province,and then select the population in line with the actual situation to forecast the trend of urban population and its structure in Yunnan Province in the next 30 years;measured the basic pension insurance fund workers in urban and rural income and expenditure balance trend in the current policy to establish the endowment insurance revenue and expenditure model.The basic conclusion for the basic pension fund for urban workers will be the first time gap in 2020,The pension balance curve reached the trough for the first time in 2024,Pension gap size of246.711 billion yuan,there will be three inflection points in 30 years,Urban workers basic pension insurance funds will continue to appear gaps from 2028;What's more,the absolute value of the accumulated gap in the basic old-age insurance fund of urban workers accounts for about 10% of the current fiscal expenditure,and the pension gap will greatly affect the financial expenditure structure and the sustainability of the basic old-age security system for urban workers.Using the sensitivity analysis method to study the impact of urban workers pension "five general data" to study,the results show that the contribution rate of pension,pension adjustment index,pension replacement rate and retirement age will directly affect the scale of urban workers' pension gap and the sustainability of basic old-age insurance system for urban workers.It is suggested that the government should formulate the basic old-age insurance policy for urban workers in line with the situation of Yunnan Province from the following aspects:Perfect retirement system,Strict control "low retirement";Enhance the income ability,strengthen the publicity,raise the sense of payment;reasonable distinction between the crowd,extend the retirement age;Improve the income and expenditure system,promote the four budget convergence,prevent the misappropriat--ion;Standardize the pension investment management system,improve the pension investment rate of return and so on.