Study On Concession Period Decision Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

The urban rail transit project can greatly alleviate the problem of urban traffic congestion,meet the needs of people's travel in the process of urbanization under high-speed development,and alleviate the pressure of urban traffic system.Due to its long construction period,high cost and uncertain risk,urban rail transit can significantly reduce the government's financial burden,improve and guarantee the speed and quality of project construction,and promote the development of social capital.However,due to the unreasonable formulation of the PPP project concession period,the project failed,which attracted the attention of relevant state departments.The problem of concession decision-making has become an important issue that needs to be solved urgently in the current urban rail transit PPP project.Through literature reading and past experience,this paper determines 20 influencing factors affecting the concession period of urban rail transit PPP project,sorts them and conducts expert interviews,obtains the relationship between factors and establishes the interpretative structural modeling of the urban rail transit PPP project concession period's influencing factors.The system dynamics software is used to establish the causal feedback structure chart of the urban rail transit PPP project concession period,and the cause tree and the result tree of the influencing factors of the concession period are obtained,so as to establish the decision model of the urban rail transit PPP project concession period,and the following conclusions are obtained.(1)Four impact levels are divided for the influencing factors of the concession period,and the first-to-fourth layer presents a hierarchical relationship,thus determining that each factor is a fundamental factor,a direct factor or an indirect factor.(2)Providing a set of reference models for the decision of concession period of urban rail transit PPP project,enriching the theoretical basis of PPP project concession period decision;(3)Model sensitivity analysis simulates the relevant factors by ±5% and ±10%respectively.The annual traffic volume and annual operation and maintenance cost are most sensitive to the urban rail transit PPP project concession period,with the greatest impact;the sensitivity of property income is second.The impact of the number of locomotive purchases is small.(4)During the formulation of the project concession period,it is necessary to reasonably predict the annual traffic volume and the annual operation and maintenance cost.At the same time,in the project operation process,the annual operation and maintenance cost of the project should be effectively controlled and appropriately encouraged.Annual traffic volume to obtain a concession period value that meets the expectations of all parties.The study can provide decision-making suggestions for the future concession period of urban rail transit PPP project,promote the signing speed of concession contracts for such projects,and provide impetus for the construction of urban rail transit PPP projects.