An Empirical Analysis To Fluctuations Of Real Estate Industry Of Chengdu

Recently, the real estate industry develops rapidly in China. As a result, it has become the backbone industry in many cities and regions, but it is widely correlative and strongly influential which is prone to jeopardize the whole regional economy. Therefore, to study the real estate fluctuation will be helpful to master the development law of real estate industry and market as well as to explore real estate fluctuation and macro-control measures, which beneficial to guiding the development of real estate industry in some regions.The study in this paper begins with economic and real estate cycle theory and regional economic theory, and re-identifies the meaning of the fluctuation and the cycle of real estate, and then divides the fluctuation of real estate into two different ones: long-term trend and cycle. In the part of systematic analysis to the fluctuation of real estate, the formation reasons, influencing factors and mechanism of primary trend and cycle are discussed respectively, the law of the real estate fluctuation is deeply opened out.The paper makes a case study on the fluctuation of Chengdu 's real estate industry. Firstly the fluctuation of real estate industry is described by qualitative and quantitative analysis and the long-term trend and cycle curves are made. And then with the help of correlate analysis method and multiple regression analysis method, the index of real estate industry of Chengdu is taken as the research object to substantiate the application of the cycle model. Lastly, the special influencing factors on the fluctuation of Chengdu's real estate industry are categorized out.The last part of the research is about macro-control policy which focuses on anti-cycle measures in real estate industry. A framework of anti-cycle policy and some suggestions are put forth in the end.