The Change Trend And Cycle Fluctuation Of Real Estate Price In China

The real estate price is an important index of the real estate industry.Because of the special attribute of the real estate industry,the level of the real estate price is not only related to the smooth operation of the economy,but also closely related to the residents' life.It is very useful for every market participant to grasp the inherent law of real estate price and fully understand the trend direction and fluctuation of real estate price in China.Taking the law of the real estate price as the research object and the periodic decomposition of the real estate price as the starting point,this paper discusses the changing trend and the periodic fluctuation of the real estate price in our country.On this basis,the main factors affecting the trend of real estate price change and the main factors of the fluctuation of house price cycle are analyzed.This paper selects the monthly data of the national average sale price of commercial housing from 1991 to 2018 as the measurement index of the real estate price of our country.Seven intrinsic mode functions(IMFs components)and one remainder are obtained by using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)method to decompose the time series data of house prices during the sample period.After series reconstruction,the high frequency component,low frequency component and trend term of house price series are obtained,and the long-term trend,periodic fluctuation and irregular fluctuation component of house price are separated.Furthermore,on the basis of the decomposition results,combined with the relevant theory,State Space Model with variable parameters,the VAR model and the ARCH family model are used to the further analysis of the house price.The results show that:(1)there is a stable trend in the real estate price in China,and the strength of the rising trend is still on the rise;(2)the main factors driving the long-term rise of house prices are mainly reflected in the demand level of house prices.Among them,thepopulation and income factors will have a significant positive impact on house prices,but due to the lack of flexibility in the supply level of house prices,the long-term equilibrium level of house prices is constantly rising;(3)the purchase area of real estate developers in the supply level will have a negative effect on house prices in the long run;(4)since 1991,the house prices in China have experienced two rounds of Kuznets cycle and four short cycles,it is expected that house prices are about to enter the contraction phase of the cycle;(5)the fluctuation of house price in our country has the agglomeration effect,and the house price has obvious positive reaction to the good news of the market,but there is a certain degree of absorption to the negative information of the market,and the reaction is less sensitive;(6)the occurrence of major events,the degree of monetary policy tightness is the main cause of house price cycle fluctuations.Finally,for the purpose of stabilizing the growth of real estate prices in China,according to the main influencing factors of the long-term changing trend of house prices and the reasons of cycle fluctuation,this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions from three aspects: demand,supply and economic fundamentals.