Research On The Impact Of Canada's Wood Export Restriction Policy On Forest Product Trade

Wood forest products play a vital role in the development of countries around the world.Correspondingly,each country's trade in forest products is closely linked to the economic development and social stability of each country.The rapid development of the international trade in forest products has attracted the attention of many scholars all around the world.With the increasing proportion of trade in forest products in various countries,governments of all countries also pay more attention to the formulation of policies concerning the trade of forest products.As the world's major exporter of wood,Canada has abundant forest resources.What's more,British Columbia is Canada's largest timber exporter and one of China's largest sources of timber imports.In 1998,BC issued an exporter's announcement.In 2013,the province continued to issue an announcement to collect provincial processing surcharges for logs exported from the province.This series of restrictions on timber export policies have a certain impact on the trade of forest products.This article selects British Columbia as an example,and British Columbia can represents Canada.This article examines the impact of timber export restrictions imposed by BC on the global forest product trade market and the trade of forest products between China and Canada from both macro and micro perspectives.From the macro perspective,the GFPM model and scenario assumptions are used to predict the changes in Canada's timber import and export from 2015 to 2030 and the changes in the global forest product trade market.From the micro perspective,this paper selects China as the research object and uses the gravity model to conduct a regression analysis on the factors that affect the trade in forest products between China and Canada.The results of this study are as follows:(1)Canada's relaxation of timber supply will be more conducive to a balanced global trade in forest products and will have a positive impact on the balance of supply and demand of global forest products.(2)High-growth supply program will have a greater impact on forest product prices,production,consumption,and trade,and may reduce consumer surplus.Low-growth supply program can both stimulate log demand and reduce consumer surplus.The reduction can also avoid adverse effects on the production and consumption of other forest products.(3)The implementation of the timber export restriction policy in Canada also has a significant impact on the trade volume of forest products between China and Canada,and the impact is negative.The impact coefficient of the implementation of the policy is-0.263,which indicates that if Canada implements timber export restriction policies in a certain period,the trade volume of forest products between China and Canada will decrease by 0.263 percentage points during this period.As an exporting country and a resource-rich country,Canada needs to consider maintaining sustainable forest management while also ensuring the maximization of social welfare when implementing future export restrictions.As an importing country and a resource-poor country,China will need to increase revenues and reduce expenditures in the future trade of forest products,open up a broader trade market,and at the same time protect domestic free forest resources.