The Research Of Sino-Russian Timber-Forest Products Trade Based On Gravity Model

The geopolitical advantages between China and Russia are obvious. The economic strength is forceful and the trade in timber-forest products develops rapidly, occupying an important position in the world forest trade market. With the dwindling of forest resources, all the countries around the world pay more attention to the ecological environment. Russia begins to limit the export of logs and other primary forest products in order to protect their own resources and vigorously develop the processing industry. However, China’s forest resources are scarce and the consumption of timber-forest products grow rapidly, which causes an increasing dependent on imports of timber-forest products. Therefore, we have to reposition the safety of the forest industry and treat the development of timber-forest products between China and Russia under the new situation with a long-term perspective.This paper is on the basis of the theory of the absolute advantage, the comparative advantage, the factor endowments and the trade protection. Firstly, the paper shows quantitative and qualitative analysis of the status of the timber-forest products trade on the world, China and Russia, and between China and Russia. Secondly, the paper analyzes the political factors, economic factors, forest resource endowment, exchange rates, tariffs, illegal logging, forest certification and other seven factors on the influences of the timber-forests products trade between Russia and China from the theoretical levels. Thirdly, the paper uses the gravity model to an empirical test of the factors that affect the trade in forest products between Russia and China, and draw the plot of the GDP of the two countries, the differences between the per capita forest area has a positive impact on the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia, and the exchange rate on the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia has a negative correlation, and the forest certification and APEC have failed the test. Therefore, it shows that the economic scales between China and Russia is an important factor to promote forest products trade between China and Russia, and the rich forest resources of Russia and the scarce forest resources of China form the differences in factor endowments between two countries that is another important factor to promote the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia. The fluctuations in the exchange rate of the RMB against Ruble contain the development of the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia. While the timber-forest products trade between the two countries hasn’t got any trade preferences as they are both belong to the same APEC member countries. The forest certifications don’t have significant impacts on the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia. Finally, the paper concludes strategies to promote the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia from the perspectives of government, industry associations and enterprises being aimed at the status of the timber-forest products trade between China and Russia, influencing factors and empirical results.