Estimation And Research Of Potential Economic Growth Rate In Inner Mongolia

Potential GDP and potential GDP growth rate refer to the GDP and its growth rate realized by a country or region's factors of production or economic resources under fully utilized conditions.According to economic theory,the potential output level reflects the long-term and stable output level of a country(or region),and many factors such as policy changes and short-term market demand will affect the actual output level,making the actual output fluctuate around the potential output.The difference between the real GDP growth rate and the potential GDP growth rate reflects the change of the economic cycle.If the real GDP growth rate is greater than the potential GDP growth rate,the economy will be overheated and there will be inflation pressure.If the real GDP growth rate is less than the potential GDP growth rate,the economy will have the risk of recession and the unemployment rate may rise.Estimating the potential growth rate can better predict and guide economic development and help government departments make better decisions,including future unemployment rate prediction(Okun law),inflation expectations,net export expectations,government planning and project investment arrangements.This paper studies the estimation,change and trend of the potential economic growth rate in Inner Mongolia in recent years,aiming at helping the relevant economic departments of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government to provide decision-making basis,This paper estimates the potential growth rate of Inner Mongolia's economy from 1992 to 2016 by using the production function method,and forecasts the potential growth rate from 2018 to 2030.The estimation of potential GDP growth rate has formed a competitive situation in academic research.The focus of competition is "accuracy".The "accuracy" depends on the estimation method and the accounting of the four basic variables.In the course of our research,we analyzed the previous research results in detail and selected a more appropriate method to re-estimate the four variables needed to calculate the capital stock,and then calculated the capital stock.When constructing the production function model,the change of industrial structure is taken into account,and the capital structure of the tertiary industry is added to the model in the situation of linear equation,so that the estimation results can better reflect the impact of the change of industrial structure on output.These are two improvements to previous studies in this paper.The conclusions of this study are as follows:(1)In recent years,the decline of real economic growth rate in Inner Mongolia is not volatile,but tendentious.The main reason for this trend is the decline of potential growth rate,and the decline of potential growth rate is that the rate of technological progress has not run away from the decline rate of marginal return of investment.(2)The real growth rate has been lower than the potential growth rate since 2014;(3)From the perspective of capital output elasticity,in recent years,the secondary industry has shown a downward trend,but the tertiary industry has increased rapidly,indicating that the tertiary industry in Inner Mongolia still has a great potential for development,while the tertiary industry has a relatively low labor productivity relative to the secondary industry;(4)According to the forecast results of the next ten years,the potential growth rate will continue to decline in the next ten years,so the government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region should not set up too high economic development speed under the new normal economy,but pay more attention to high-quality development.Finally,according to the results of estimation and prediction,this paper gives several policy recommendations.