| Since the implementation of the market-oriented housing system reform in China in 1998,the national housing prices have experienced a process of continuous rise,especially since the “advance,auction,and hang” system for commercial land transfer began on August 31,2003.China's housing prices have shown an accelerated upward trend.In the past ten years,the speed of urban real estate prices in China has risen faster than the growth rate of residents' income,which has made housing prices a bubble trend and increased the risk of economic operation.As one of the pillar industries of China's economy,the real estate industry has already had a housing price problem.Become a big problem affecting the national economy and people's livelihood.At the same time,in early 2004,the central government began to intensively regulate the real estate market.The “National Eight Articles” and “National Six Articles” promulgated before and after have certain effects on the suppression of real estate speculation;in 2017,the party's 19 th National Congress report stated: "Accelerate the establishment of a multi-subject supply,multi-channel security,rent-and-purchase housing system,so that all people live and live." It can be seen that with the changes in economic and social development levels and government concepts,the focus of China's housing regulation has experienced The transformation of housing welfare from “heavy market” to “market and protection” has explored the long-term mechanism of stable and healthy development of the real estate market,which has become the main tone of the current central government real estate market regulation.It can be seen that the change in house prices is closely related to the government's macro-control policies.The policy of renting and selling the same rights is an important part of the realization of rent-and-purchase.What is the value of the price of the real estate market? Can it be diverted to the demand of the real estate market? The purpose is worthy of further study.The research in this paper is mainly divided into seven parts:The first chapter is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background,purpose,significance(including theoretical and practical significance),methods,literature review,and the basic structure and main content,innovations and deficiencies of this paper.The second chapter is the theoretical basis and analytical framework of this paper.Firstly,the four important concepts of short-term and long-term trends,real estate,real estate market and real estate market long-term mechanism are explained.The connotation and value composition of real estate are analyzed based on Marxist theory.Then the market failure is explained.Theory,combing the theory of government regulation,and finally put forward the technical route of this article.The market failure theory holds that the market mechanism is not omnipotent,and there are defects such as monopoly,information asymmetry and externality.As a subsystem of the market,the real estate market is reflected in the relevant theory of market failure,and real estate goods have the characteristics of quasi-public goods,which is related to the basic living needs of the people.Therefore,the government regulation theory believes that market failure is inevitable.When there is a problem in the operation of the market,the government must take corresponding measures to control it.As a subsystem of the market,the real estate market is an important part of the development of the market economy.In the process of operation,there are also market failures.It is not enough to rely solely on the self-regulation of the real estate market.It is also necessary for the government to conduct a comprehensive Effective regulation.The third chapter focuses on the background and reasons for the policy of renting and selling in China,and sorts out the specific content of China's policy of renting and selling.Firstly,from the accurate grasp of the housing property of the housing,adhere to the scientific positioning of "staying and not speculation",the development of the real estate industry and housing rental market,the huge pressure of housing purchases and the multiple attributes of housing,National background,industry background and people's livelihood background;then combing the development of the policy of renting,selling and equal rights from the dimension of time,and sorting out the specific measures for implementing the policy of renting and selling the same rights in each city from the spatial dimension,and finally analyzing the policy of renting and selling the same rights.The reason for the proposal is that the different rights to rent and sell will not be conducive to the stable and healthy development of the real estate market,the difficulty in meeting the public service needs of tenants,the crowding out effect,the instability of the financial system,and the potential for urbanization.Not conducive to social stability.The fourth chapter mainly analyzes the mechanism of the impact of the tenancy and sales rights policy on the real estate market price.The first is the mechanism of the rights channel to ensure that “rent” and “sale” are equal in terms of public rights.On the one hand,it can regulate the “demand side” of the real estate market,and promote the part of the buyers with low income in the rigid housing group to turn to three.Level market renting,and to some extent,reduce the speculation of some speculators to continue to speculate in the school district,so as to reduce the demand for housing purchases in the real estate market;on the other hand,it can regulate the "supply side" of the real estate market,develop the housing leasing market,and increase The housing rental supply meets the housing needs of different groups from multiple perspectives;the second is the price channel mechanism,based on the four-quadrant model.This paper believes that the implementation of the tenancy and sales rights policy has direct and indirect effects on housing prices.The direct effect will help to curb the excessive rise in housing prices;the indirect effect will indirectly affect the rise in the price of real estate assets in the asset market due to the increase in rents.Therefore,in the long run,whether the policy of renting and selling the same rights has a long-term inhibitory effect on housing prices remains to be further Research;the third is to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of the real estate market of the tenancy and sales policy.In the short-term,the policy of renting and selling the same rights will help to curb the excessive rise in housing prices,help the cities with high housing prices to retain talents,and the short-term rise in rents is not obvious(except for several first-tier cities),to curb the speculative demand in the real estate market.In the long run,the restraining effect of the policy of renting and selling the same rights on housing prices is limited,the urban housing price differentiation will continue,the housing prices will still rise,and the impact on the real estate market investment will be small,and generally relatively stable.And long-term changes in supply and demand will lead to an increase in housing rents,but it will help cities attract high-quality talents and improve the demographic structure.The fifth chapter empirically tests the short-term real estate price effect of the tenancy and sales policy with empirical data and measurement models.This paper will use the dummy variable of rent and sale and equal rights policy as the explanatory variable,take the real estate market price as the explanatory variable,and introduce the loan interest rate and down payment ratio as the control variables into the model for empirical test,and observe the impact of the tenancy and sales policy.The real estate price effect brought about by the empirical results shows that the policy of renting and selling the same rights has a significant effect on restraining the excessive rise of housing prices.The sixth chapter focuses on the long-term trend of the impact of the tenancy and sales rights policy on the real estate market price.Mainly relying on the international experience of foreign countries to implement the policy of renting and selling rights and the actual situation of China's policy implementation,relevant literature and theory to analyze the long-term trend of domestic rent and sales rights policy on housing prices.The seventh chapter focuses on the main points of this paper and puts forward the policy recommendations to curb the excessive rise of housing prices around the theme of renting and selling.On the one hand,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1.In the short-term,the policy of renting and selling the same rights has a significant effect on curbing housing prices.2.In the long run,the long-term trend of rent and sales policy changes the real estate market price is less,more The policy design from the “household and non-speculation”,establishing a long-term mechanism for stable and healthy development of real estate,caring for the real estate market and attracting talents,has little impact on real estate market investment;3.Long-term mechanism In view of the fact that controlling the rate of house price rise depends only on the policy of renting and selling the same rights,it is impossible to achieve the goal of stabilizing house prices.It is necessary to fundamentally regulate the supply and demand of the real estate market,and jointly promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market with policies such as purchase restriction,loan restriction,interest rate and property tax..On the other hand,it is necessary to expand the rental housing listing,deepen the reform of the land system,increase the supply of leased housing land,improve the laws and regulations of the housing rental market,achieve the legal level of “rental and sales rights”,stabilize the tenant's long-term residence expectations,and realize public services.The four aspects of “rental,sale and equal rights” further implement the policy of renting and selling the same rights and restraining the excessive rise of housing prices.There are three main innovations in this paper: First,the research perspective is new: from the perspective of renting and selling the right to study its impact on the real estate market price;Second,the research content is new: consider the short-term effect of the rent and sale rights policy on housing prices And long-term trends;third,the research method is new: the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.In terms of theoretical analysis,based on Marxist theory,the value composition of real estate is analyzed.In the aspect of empirical analysis,the existing data is used to empirically test the short-term effect of the policy of renting and selling rights on housing prices.The main shortcoming of this paper is that it lacks deep understanding and research on the theoretical foundation,and the theoretical analysis is not deep enough.Moreover,due to the late introduction of the policy of renting and selling the same rights,it has not been fully rolled out,so the relevant research literature is relatively small,and there will be insufficient search and summary of relevant literature.Second,due to the short implementation time of the policy,relevant There are not many data,only the empirical requirements for long-term and short-term impacts can be achieved.In the long run,whether the policy of renting and selling the same rights has a significant impact on the suppression of the real estate market price,we have no way to use real data to test whether it has a general impact on housing prices.The long-term significant impact remains to be tested in the future,and further research is needed.As one of the pillar industries of China's economy,the real estate industry has become a big problem affecting the national economy and the people's livelihood.The Central Economic Work Conference has insisted on the scientific orientation of “residence and non-speculation”.The report of the 19 th National Congress also pointed out: “Accelerate the establishment The multi-subject supply,multi-channel guarantee,and rent-and-buy housing system allow all people to live and live.” In this context,the research in this paper is closely related to the current hotspots,hoping to provide a stable and healthy development of the real estate market in China.More theoretical support and policy advice. |
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