Research On The Structure Of Financial Risk In Real Estate Industry And The Systematic Risk Of Banking Industry

As a capital-intensive industry,the development of the banking industry is interrelated with the development of the real estate industry,which makes the systemic risks of the banking industry and the systemic risks of the real estate industry have a certain correlation.Because China's financial market development is relatively lagging behind,the financing channel of China's real estate industry mainly relies on bank credit as an indirect financing method.In recent years,the government has continuously introduced a series of policies to limit the dependence of banking systemic risk and real estate industry financial risk.Structure,but due to the irrational behavior of the group and the highly correlated asset-liability structure between banks and banks,financial risks are still easily transmitted and spread between the banking industry and the real estate industry.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the correlation between the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risks of the real estate industry.Based on the Copula function,this paper applies the relevant theories and methods of the Copula function to the relationship between the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.Through the combination of the relevant theory of the Copula function and the CCA method,the SCCA method is used.Calculate the systemic risk of China's banking industry and the quantitative indicators of financial risks in the real estate industry,and compare the systemic risk quantitative indicators with the quantitative indicators calculated by the CCA method;the relevant theory of the Copula function and the GARCH model are combined today to get dynamics.The dual asymmetric DDAC-GARCH model uses the model to study the correlation between the systematic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.This paper firstly introduces the research background and research significance of the article,systematically summarizes the research content and framework of the article,and puts forward the innovation points and deficiencies of the paper.On this basis,this paper briefly introduces the relevant theories of Copula function and CCA method,and combs the literature on the application of Copula function in the financial field,the measurement of systemic risk and the risk correlation between banking industry and real estate industry.Then this paper collects relevant data of the banking industry and the real estate industry,and qualitatively analyzes the correlation between the systemic risks of the banking industry and the financial risks of the real estate industry as well as the specific transmission mechanism.Then based on the SCCA model,this paper measures the systemic risk of China's banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.Based on this,the dynamic dual-asymmetric DDAC-GARCH model is used to systematically risk the banking industry and the real estate industry.The financial risk indicators are empirically studied and the conclusions are drawn.The study finds that there is a certain dynamic non-linear correlation between the systemic risk of China's banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.That is,the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry have a certain positive correlation at any time.This positive correlation has a certain tail structure: the lower tail correlation is stronger than the upper tail correlation,that is,when the risk of receiving an external shock in an industry is significantly increased,the risk of another industry is often significantly increased.Moreover,this correlation is dynamic.In the context of different economic cycles and regulatory policies,the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry are subject to change.During the period of strong supervision,The systemic risks of the banking industry and the financial risks of the real estate industry are more interrelated.Finally,based on the above empirical results and research conclusions,this paper puts forward four policy recommendations for the regulation of the banking industry and the real estate industry and systemic risk management in the context of “de-leverage”.As a capital-intensive industry,the development of the banking industry is interrelated with the development of the real estate industry,which makes the systemic risks of the banking industry and the systemic risks of the real estate industry have a certain correlation.As the development of China's financial market is still not perfect,the real estate industry mainly relies on bank loans.Although the government has adopted a series of measures to control the excessive correlation between bank credit and the real estate market,there are still a large number of operating loans and personal loans flowing into the real estate market.At the same time,the complex network relationship between banks also makes banks that do not have direct business dealings with the real estate market indirectly affected by house price fluctuations.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the correlation between the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risks of the real estate industry.Based on the Copula function,this paper applies the relevant theories and methods of the Copula function to the relationship between the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.Through the combination of the relevant theory of the Copula function and the CCA method,the SCCA method is used.Calculate the systemic risk of China's banking industry and the quantitative indicators of financial risks in the real estate industry,and compare the systemic risk quantitative indicators with the quantitative indicators calculated by the CCA method;the relevant theory of the Copula function and the GARCH model are combined today to get dynamics.The dual asymmetric DDAC-GARCH model uses the model to study the correlation between the systematic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.This paper firstly introduces the research background and research significance of the article,systematically summarizes the research content and framework of the article,and puts forward the innovation points and deficiencies of the paper.On this basis,this paper briefly introduces the relevant theories of Copula function and CCA method,and combs the literature on the application of Copula function in the financial field,the measurement of systemic risk and the risk correlation between banking industry and real estate industry.Then this paper collects relevant data of the banking industry and the real estate industry,and qualitatively analyzes the correlation between the systemic risks of the banking industry and the financial risks of the real estate industry as well as the specific transmission mechanism.Then based on the SCCA model,this paper measures the systemic risk of China's banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.Based on this,the dynamic dual-asymmetric DDAC-GARCH model is used to systematically risk the banking industry and the real estate industry.The financial risk indicators are empirically studied and the conclusions are drawn.The study finds that there is a certain dynamic non-linear correlation between the systemic risk of China's banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry.That is,the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry have a certain positive correlation at any time.This positive correlation has a certain tail structure: the lower tail correlation is stronger than the upper tail correlation,that is,when the risk of receiving an external shock in an industry is significantly increased,the risk of another industry is often significantly increased.Moreover,this correlation is dynamic.In the context of different economic cycles and regulatory policies,the systemic risk of the banking industry and the financial risk of the real estate industry are subject to change.During the period of strong supervision,The systemic risks of the banking industry and the financial risks of the real estate industry are more interrelated.Finally,based on the above empirical results and research conclusions,this paper puts forward four policy recommendations for the regulation of the banking industry and the real estate industry and systemic risk management in the context of “de-leverage”.