Research On Benefit Analysis And Simulation Of PPP Project Oriented To Stakeholders

As a market-oriented and socialized supply mode of public service,PPP mode is increasing public service supply of public goods and improving public service quality efficiency through relaxing market access,exerting financial lever,stimulating social capital fair competition.However,in the process of implementing and transferring PPP projects,due to the change of internal and external factors,the actual income of the project is inconsistent with the expected income,and the cognition,understanding and attitude of the government and social capital to the project income are divided,which leads to many problems such as the disputes,the early termination of the government,the advance of social capital,and the lower standard of public service,the damage of public interests.Therefore,this paper makes a scientific cognition to the complex characteristics,the occurrence and the influence mechanism of the PPP project revenue system,provides the theory support and technical method of the PPP project income under the influence of various changes,and explores the stakeholders ’ characteristics of PPP project and its influence on the project income.(1)Literature review,research ideas and technical routes.This paper summarizes the research on PPP income,sums up the shortages and trends of current research,makes clear the research objectives and contents,chooses appropriate research methods,and designs research ideas and technical routes.(2)Theory and method elaboration.Through the literature review,the definition and connotation of PPP project stakeholders are clarified,and the theory and theory application of rooted theory,System dynamics,fuzzy set and cooperative game theory are expounded respectively,which lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis of the revenue connotation,the system analyses and the construction.(3)Analysis of the profitability of PPP project.Based on the theory of data collection and data analysis,this paper analyzes the overall revenue target and the influencing factors of PPP project,and on this basis,through the literature research and related theories to analyze the income connotation systematically,analyzes the relationship between the project income target and the influencing factors,thus constituting the theoretical framework of the thesis analysis.(4)Analysis and construction of basic income system of PPP project.From the point of view of the project company,based on the system dynamics,considering the factors of project income and social benefit,through the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the income factors of PPP project,the author obtains the foundation of the model construction,analyzes the influence relation and influence degree of the social influence factors through the fuzzy inference system,The quantitative relation and analysis steps of social factors are obtained,and then the basic PPP project income model is established by using AnyLogic software.(5)Analysis and construction of PPP project revenue system for stakeholders.Through the identification of PPP project stakeholders and their demands,the analysis of the influence of appeal,the establishment of the satisfaction system,the model language of the relationship between appeal and satisfaction,this paper makes the first optimization of the PPP project income analysis model;Based on cooperative game theory,the analysis of the surplus of PPP project This paper expounds the cooperative game relationship between the stakeholders and the conflict and balance between the government and the social capital,and the second optimization of the PPP project income analysis model,and finally forms the PPP project revenue system which is influenced by many factors of the stakeholders.(6)Empirical research.Based on the case based data,based on the fuzzy system analysis of social factors,the results of the basic PPP project income system model simulation were obtained,and the result of the profit model was considered,and the benefit demand and game demand of stakeholders were taken into account,and the results of the income models were given.Finally through the reasonable profit margin,the parameters of passenger turnover and construction investment were studied,and the influence of each factor on the net present value of the project,the net present value of government party and the net present value of social capital was obtained.