Simulation And Analysis Of Soybean Policy In China Based On System Dynamics

With the improvement of food security, the soybean security becomes the mostpopular problem of food in domestic. Since the soybean market was opened, the soybeanproduction develops at a slow speed. But the flouring soybean o il processing industryneeds more soybean supplies, so it brings the challenge of the quality and quantity towardsthe domestic soybean. Because of the gap of the soybean demand and supply, the soybeanimports become the savior of the soybean oil processing industry. Furthermore, thedevelopment of people living standard and the stock rasing are driving the consumption ofthe domestic soybean. And such situation brings the sharp contrast between the soybeanimports and the domestic soybean. It also causes the security problem with the soybeanindustry. Consequently, it is practical significant that make a research on the soybeanindustry security.Owing to the characteristic of multiple links and factors in the soybean industry, thestudy puts forward a new idea that consider the domestic soybean industry as a system, toavoid the one-sidedness which is caused by analyzing the problems independently.Moreover, the study realizes the building of the soybean industry system model by systemdynamics, and shows the dynamic behavior of the system, and it avoids the staticlimitations of the quantitative methods of economics.The study makes the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis about the situationof the soybean industry in China with a lot of statistics. By using the principle of systemdynamics, the study detaches the main influencing factor in the production, demand,processing industry and trade of the domestic soybean, and straightens out the causalrelationship of these factors. Then, the soybean system dynamics model is built based onthe causal relationship, which reflects the dynamic restricted relationship on the soybeansupply, demand, trade and price. It demonstrates that the model can simulate the changingof the soybean in China truthfully by comparing and analyzing the simulation resultaccording to the model with the real data. At the last, there are four policy scenarios in thestudy, which are designed according to the analysis of the problem on the domestic soybean industry, and the policy parameters that are abstracted from the scenarios areadded into the model. By the simulation and comparison, the study gives the reasonablepolicy suggestions about the soybean industry in China.According to the experimental, the improvement of the investment in the soybeanscientific research and the production subsidy, and controlling the reserves, are the usefulpolices to improve problems of the domestic soybean.