Urban Transportation Land Prediction And Control Based On Computable General Equilibrium

Considering the interaction between transportation and land use,this paper establishes a model based on general equilibrium relationship to predict the future scale of urban transportation land.This research has great practical significance for optimizing the allocation of land resources,improving traffic operation efficiency,assisting the government in scientific decision-making,and promoting the development of the entire social economy.Most of the planning and design,the land use scale is calculated by the population prediction and the per capita reasonable land area.This method is simple and direct,but is incomplete and extensive.The practice experience shows that the determination of traffic land scale involves multiple industries and multiple factors.In view of the shortcomings of traditional methods,considering the complex interaction between transportation land and multiple industries,this research attempts to explore the relationship between economic development and urban transportation land,and develop a computable general equilibrium model to determine the scale of urban transportation land in the future.This research summarizes the common prediction methods of urban construction land at home and abroad.From the analysis and comparison of the existing methods,we finds that the popular population method ignores the inherent dynamic relationship between various sectors of the economic system,and often has large deviations when predicting land size.The problem worth studying that how to improve the large deviation caused by the simple population-based static methodThe computable general equilibrium model is close to the actual development of society.It considers the dynamic linkages of relevant departments in the economic system.This paper selects it as the main research method.On the basis of the existing computable general equilibrium model for other problems,this paper increases the relation equation between land use and economic system and Quasi-recursive equation,and proposes a computable general equilibrium model for predicting the future scale of urban transportation land.The model follows the principle of computable general equilibrium and explores the relationship between land demand,population,economic development,labor productivity,and vehicle ownership based on the social accounting matrix.The theoretical analysis shows that the model can be applied to the prediction of the scale of future transportation land use.In order to verify the new method proposed in this paper,the author takes Shunde,a famous Chinese town in Guangdong Province as the research object.Collecting and analyzing the relevant data,using the computable general equilibrium model to analyze,verify the history,current and the future scale of urban transportation land.Compared with the traditional method,the scale of transportation land obtained by this method is larger than that obtained by the traditional method.The results obtained by this method consistent with the experience of the planning department in Shunde and have better operability.The existing research shows that the new method proposed in this paper can be used as a decision-making tool for the development strategy of transportation land in Shunde and to determine the control strategy of relevant land use.This method can also provide a useful reference for the scientific and reasonable prediction of the land use scale of general cities in China.