Research On China's Direct Investment Risk Assessment And Early Warning To Pakistan

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1951,China and Pakistan have maintained good political and economic cooperation.With the signing of the China-Pakistan Bilateral Investment Agreement in 1989 and the 2006 China-Pakistan Free Trade Area Agreement,China and Pakistan have greatly promoted cooperation and development in investment and trade.In recent years,with the implementation of the “Belt and Road Initiative” initiative,especially the construction of the “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”,investment cooperation between China and Pakistan has gradually become the main mode of economic cooperation between China and Pakistan.The investment field covers infrastructure and oil and gas development.And various aspects such as power supply.The construction and development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has also gradually made Pakistan a major country in China's investment along the “Belt and Road”.Since 2017,although China's direct investment cooperation with Pakistan has developed steadily,and the scale of investment,industry and region have expanded,it has also been accompanied by the global political and economic turmoil,fierce competition between countries and the international environmental impact of trade protectionism.The domestic contradictions in Pakistan are sharp.Therefore,how to realize the sustainable development of China-Pakistan economic corridor construction and improve the ability of Chinese governments and enterprises to respond to various risks in Pakistan is particularly important.Based on this paper,the paper analyzes the development trend of China's direct investment in Pakistan from three aspects: China's direct investment in Pakistan,the regional distribution of industry and the development of China's foreign direct investment in Pakistan,and finds that China has invested in direct investment in Pakistan.Industry and regional concentration,investment growth has changed a lot,Pakistan's business environment needs to be improved,and China's investment supply and Pakistan's domestic demand are not complementary enough.After analyzing the causes of the above problems,it is found that China's direct investment in Pakistan has political,economic,social,cultural,market and legal risks,and the formation of risks is analyzed from the perspective of international environment and domestic environment.Based on the identification of various risks of China's direct investment in Pakistan,this paper builds a principal component analysis model based on 27 indicators from 35 countriesin China's major investment in the “Belt and Road” in 2008-2017.The investment risk is assessed.The risk analysis of China's direct investment in Pakistan is analyzed from the comparative analysis of China's direct investment risk regional positioning and China's direct investment in Pakistan.On this basis,the Chinese government's direct investment risk catastrophe model for Pakistan is constructed,and China's direct investment risk warning for Pakistan is analyzed.Finally,China's direct investment risk prevention measures against Pakistan are proposed from the government and enterprise levels.Through the relevant discussion and argumentation,the following conclusions are obtained:First,from the perspective of China's regional positioning of Pakistan's direct investment risk,Pakistan has a high investment risk,ranking lower in the investment risk comparison among 35 countries along the “Belt and Road”;and compared with other countries in South Asia,Pakistan.Investment risks are still at a high level.Second,among the risks of China's direct investment in Pakistan,the political risk is the highest,the social risk is second,the legal risk is ranked third,and the economic and market risks are low,of which the market risk is the lowest.Third,according to the judgment rules of the year of catastrophe,it is determined that the risk of China's direct investment in Pakistan is mutated in 2009,2011 and 2015.The three-year risk mutation is consistent with the previous analysis and the actual situation of China's direct investment in Pakistan.The high level of early warning of political,economic and legal risks is the common factor causing the sudden change of China's direct investment risk to Pakistan in 2009 and 2011.The sudden change of economic risk in 2009 is the main factor causing the sudden change of comprehensive risk in the year.Political risk in 2011 The mutation is the main factor causing the sudden change in the comprehensive risk of the year;in 2015,China's investment risks to Pakistan have higher fluctuations,among which the sudden changes in market risk and social risk led to the risk of China's direct investment in Pakistan during the year.mutation.The fourth is to calculate the risk warning level of China's direct investment risk to Pakistan,determine the risk warning level of Pakistan's investment risk,and analyze the risk warning changes in each year from 2008 to 2017,and find out the comprehensive risk warning of China's direct investment in Pakistan.The grade is declining.In 2017,thecomprehensive risk warning level has dropped to four levels of early warning,and the comprehensive risk changes tend to be stable,which is conducive to the construction and development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.However,China still needs to be vigilant against economic risks,legal risks and market risks in direct investment in Pakistan to prevent damage to investment interests.The fifth is to test the scientific and rationality of China's seven-level warning level of direct investment risk to Pakistan through the risk early warning analysis of the year,2011 and 2015 of the mutation year.Therefore,this warning can be based on the future investment risk warning for Pakistan.Standards for early warning research.