Research On Risk Allocation Of Infrastructure PPP Project Based On IPD Mode

Infrastructure PPP project is a major reform of public goods supply mechanism,which can combine the government's market supervision and public service functions with the management efficiency of social capital and the power of technological innovation organically.It benefits to the market mechanism and the supply capacity of public goods.It is also conductive to the decentralization,separate government from enterprise and embody modern governance.However,the actual implementation of PPP projects will often be due to a variety of risks without achieving the desired results or direct failure,resulting in the advantages of infrastructure PPP projects could not be utilized fully.The IPD model is a new type of integrated delivery management model that requires each party to enter the project early in the project,exert its wisdom and experience to improve the quality of the project,reduce the cost of the project,and reduce the risk of the project.At present,IPD model has many successful cases abroad,most scholars in China also focus on the research of IPD model and the application of IPD model in PPP project,some projects in China have adopted the core requirements of IPD model to manage the project,this paper is based on the research results at home and abroad,The risk identification,risk analysis and risk sharing research of infrastructure PPP Project under IPD mode are carried out,hoping to reduce the risk factors of infrastructure PPP project and improve the success rate of infrastructure PPP project through the application of IPD model in infrastructure PPP project.Firstly,this paper identifies the risk factors of infrastructure PPP project under the traditional mode through literature review.Because of the lack of mature experience and theory of infrastructure PPP Project under IPD mode,this paper adopts rooting theory to conduct in-depth interviews with experts and scholars as well as experienced project personnel,in order to identify the risk factors for infrastructure PPP projects in IPD mode and the risk factors for infrastructure PPP projects that IPD can effectively reduce or increase.Subsequently,,this paper compares and analyzes the identification results of literature review and rooting theory,and gets the risk factor table of infrastructure PPP under IPD mode.Secondly,this paper makes a quantitative study on the importance and degree of influence of the risk factors of the infrastructure PPP project under the identified IPD mode by AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive evaluation method.It also sorts the important degree of each risk factor and puts forward the coping mechanism to the important risk.Based on the game theory,this paper studies the risk sharing of the infrastructure PPP Project under the IPD mode,and constructs the static game model of the three-party complete information in the government department,the private sector(pure investor)and the contracting unit to find the risk of unilateral assumption.The calculation results are in accordance with the requirements of laws and regulations.Through the establishment of cooperative game Shapley value Game model,the proportion of risk sharing among government departments,private sectors(pure investors)and contractors is analyzed.Finally,this paper applies the above research results of risk identification,risk analysis and risk sharing through actual project cases,which verifies the rationality and practicability of the research results.12 figures,53 table,110 references are included.