Non-Equilibrium Research On China's Provincial Tourism Competitiveness

Since the reform and opening up,China has achieved a historic leap from a tourism-strapped country to a large tourism country.The tourism industry has fully integrated into the national strategic system and has been at the forefront of national economic construction.It has become a strategic pillar industry of the national economy.As an important area for benefiting the people's livelihood,tourism has become an indispensable part of improving people's livelihood.It will promote all levels of government to pay more attention to the development of tourism.The tourism development environment will be further optimized.During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period,China's tourism industry is in a time of golden development,structural adjustment and prominent contradictions.It also faces many opportunities and challenges.In view of this,clarifying the spatial non-equilibrium of tourism industry is significant for the coordinated development of tourism.Firstly,based on the construction of China's provincial tourism competitiveness evaluation index system,the projection pursuit model based on accelerated genetic algorithm is used to evaluate the tourism competitiveness of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2007 to 2016.The results show that the tourism competitiveness of Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Beijing,Shandong and Shanghai is relatively strong,while Gansu,Qinghai and Ningxia is comparatively weak.Secondly,the results of space-time analysis show that the tourism competitiveness of each province has an increasing trend during the sample period,and the spatial distribution has a non-equilibrium feature.Which refers to that there is a certain gap between the tourism competitiveness of the eight regions,and the polarization phenomenon is relatively obvious,the tourism competitiveness of each province shows a positive spatial correlation.Thirdly,the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition show that the total gap of China's provincial tourism competitiveness is weakening.The net gap between regions is the first source of the total gap.The gap between the northwest region and other regions is further expanding.However,the gap between other regions shows a decreasing trend.The results of Kernel density estimation show that the total gap of tourism competitiveness in 31 provinces in China shows a decreasing trend,but the polarization phenomenon is more obvious.Then,the traditional Markov chain analysis method shows that the probability of maintaining the initial state of tourism competitiveness in each province is relatively large,especially the probability of keeping the low level and high level unchanged.The spatial Markov chain analysis shows that if the tourism competitiveness of the neighboring regions is at high or a relatively high level,the driving effect on the low-level regions and the relatively low-level regions is more obvious,while there is a significant hindrance to the weakening of tourism competitiveness in high-level regions and relatively high-level regions.If the tourism competitiveness of the neighboring regions is at a low or a relatively low level,the restrictive effect on tourism competitiveness improvement in low-level regions and lower-level regions is more obvious,while to a certain extent,there is a downward effect on the tourism competitiveness of high-level regions and relatively high-level regions.In addition,the empirical results of the spatial Durbin-time fixed effect model show that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect of the industrial structure.The proportion of general public service expenditure to GDP and the number of college students are positively related to tourism competitiveness.Urbanization is positively related to tourism competitiveness,while there is a significant negative spatial spillover effect.Traffic network density is negatively correlated with tourism competitiveness,and there is no significant spatial spillover effect.