Research On The Measurement Of China's Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity And Its Regional Disparity And Dynamic Distribution Characteristics

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's urbanization,while stimulating economic and social development,it has also been accompanied by population growth,space expansion,and resource consumption and the pressure on urban development is also increasing.How to measure the urban comprehensive carrying capacity needs to be considered from the aspects of the city's population,environment,resources,and economy.This will help to understand the actual situation of urban development and identify problems,so as to better promote sustainable urban development and the new urbanization process.This paper takes the urban comprehensive carrying capacity as the main research object,and its main research ideas are: first of all,build an evaluation index system,use the entropy method to determine the index weights,and calculate the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2009 to 2018;Secondly,based on the calculation results,the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method are used to analyze the regional differences and their sources of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in China;Thirdly,the statistical methods of Kernel density estimation,spatial global autocorrelation,and Markov chain state transition method are used to explore the dynamic distribution characteristics of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in China;Finally,based on the empirical results,some countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to improve China's urban comprehensive carrying capacity.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China's urban comprehensive carrying capacity is generally on the rise,and the eastern urban comprehensive carrying capacity is ahead of the central and western regions;From the analysis of the single factor carrying capacity analysis,the population carrying capacity fluctuates greatly,and the resource carrying capacity shows a downward trend,and the environment,economy,public services,and infrastructure carrying capacity have all continued to rise.(2)The overall gap in China's urban comprehensive carrying capacity has narrowed;regional differences are the main reason for the imbalance in urban comprehensive carrying capacity;The intra-regional differences in the eastern region are large,and the intra-regional differences in the western region have the largest fluctuations,while the intra-regional differences in the central region are relatively stable;The overall regional differences show that the east-west difference is greater than the east-middle difference than the mid-west difference,which indicates that there is a serious spatial imbalance in the distribution of China's urban comprehensive carrying capacity.(3)The overall development speed of China's urban comprehensive carrying capacity is uneven and multi-polar differentiation appears;the regional differentiation of the urban comprehensive carrying capacity of each province is obvious,and there is a phenomenon of spatial agglomeration,and the provinces with higher urban comprehensive carrying capacity tend to provinces with more higher urban comprehensive carrying capacity;The development of China's urban comprehensive carrying capacity is path-dependent,and provinces with a lower level of urban comprehensive carrying capacity have a higher probability of shifting to the next level;the long-term development trend of urban comprehensive carrying capacity is a medium level.The innovation and characteristics of this article are: Firstly,from the perspective of regional differences for the first time,this paper analyzes the overall regional differences in urban comprehensive carrying capacity using the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method;Secondly,in this paper,the spatial statistical method is applied to the spatial agglomeration of urban comprehensive carrying capacity and the Markov chain state transfer method is applied to the prediction of urban comprehensive carrying capacity,which enriches the research method of urban comprehensive carrying capacity.