Analysis Of The Status Quo And Development Potential Of China-ASEAN Bilateral Trade

China-ASEAN bilateral trade is closely related.China is ASEAN’s largest trading partner and ASEAN is China’s third largest trading partner.Since the establishment of the CAFTA in 2010,bilateral cooperation in the fields of trade,investment and finance has continued to expand.Especially after the "One Belt and One Road" initiative was proposed in 2013,China has increased direct investment in ASEAN in terms of infrastructure.A series of achievements have been made in the areas of construction,international capacity cooperation and industrial park construction.ASEAN countries as the "One Belt and One Road" land-sea exchange and the starting point of the "Maritime Silk Road",strengthen trade and economic exchanges between China and ASEAN,and promote the development of bilateral trade,promote the construction of the "Maritime Silk Road" and promote southwest China.The opening and development of the region,the promotion of economic development in ASEAN countries and the maintenance of peace and stability in the South China Sea region are of great significance.So,what is the status of China-ASEAN bilateral trade?What is the status of bilateral economic and trade cooperation since the "One Belt and One Road" initiative?What are the factors that affect the development of bilateral trade?How can bilateral trade develop further in the future?This paper analyzes the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN using data statistics and exponential analysis methods,and then uses the panel data gravitation model to empirically examine the influencing factors of bilateral trade,and estimates the trade potential for 2013-2016 based on the model,and forecasts 2017 Trade potential from 2020,The results show that:(1)China-ASEAN bilateral trade has developed steadily,and bilateral trad’e growth has been higher than the average level of China’s foreign trade during the same period.However,there is still a certain gap between the bilateral trade volume and the target of achieving one trillion US dollars of bilateral trade by 2020.At the same time,China-ASEAN bilateral trade has a relatively high degree of concentration.Trade products are mainly concentrated in capital-intensive products and labor-intensive products.Trade countries are mainly concentrated in countries such as Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,Vietnam,and Thailand,and need to further optimize bilateral trade.The trade structure will expand China’s trade market with ASEAN countries.(2)China-ASEAN bilateral trade is affected by the population of the two countries,the GDP of ASEAN countries,the geographical distance between China and ASEAN countries,the level of trade facilitation between China and ASEAN countries,the degree of trade liberalization between China and ASEAN countries,and the infrastructure level of ASEAN countries.The impact of these factors is obvious.These factors are consistent with the effects of different nature products.China’s FDI and ASEAN countries have different roles in the trade of different nature products of China-ASEAN.(3)The potential of trade between China and ASEAN is "potential for exploration".The potential of bilateral trade has not yet been fully realized and there is still room for further development.It is necessary to fully tap potential through the "One Belt and One Road" initiative.Finally,the article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the perspectives of comparative advantage,China’s direct investment in ASEAN,the development of China’s domestic economy,and bilateral international cooperation.It has certain reference significance for promoting the development of China-ASEAN bilateral trade.