Land Use Evolution And Urban Economic Development In Shanghai

Shanghai,which has entered the post-industrial development stage,is in a critical period of economic transformation and upgrading.The Shanghai Urban Master Plan(2017-2035)proposes to change the urban development model,achieve the negative growth of the total scale of planning and construction land,and comprehensively improve the land use efficiency.Faced with new requirements and new positioning,Shanghai's land supply and demand contradictions are prominent.Under the background of tight constraints on resources and environment,it is an important task to explore the intensive development path suitable for the stage characteristics of Shanghai urban development and optimize the land development strategy during urban transformation.Studying the relationship between land use evolution and urban economic development can provide a reference for the formulation of Shanghai's land policy and urban development policy.This paper incorporates commercial,industrial,residential,administration and public services,and transportation land into a unified analytical framework.First,the nuclear density analysis is used to study the temporal and spatial evolution of the development intensity and price of different types of new construction land.Secondly,the unit root test,boundary cointegration test and autoregressive distribution lag model are used to judge the long-term and short-term relationship between different types of new construction land and urban economy.Finally,the information entropy,equilibrium and dominance of land use structure are calculated,and the influencing factors of land use structure information entropy are analyzed by multiple linear regression method.The major findings are collected as follows.(1)From the perspective of the development intensity of new construction land,Shanghai's administration and public services land and transportation land are on the rise;commercial,residential,industrial land is showing a downward trend.The spatial distribution of commercial,residential,industrial land is basically in line with the urban competitive land price theory,forming a circular land use model around the central business district.From the perspective of the price of new construction land,the price of commercial land better reflects the change of the price gradient under the market mechanism,which is declining from the central city.The price of residential land is distributed in strips,which is consistent with the distribution of the Shanghai Metro Line.Industrial land is expensive in industrial parks and presents a multi-center layout.The prices of administration and public services land,and transportation land are mostly low or zero.From the perspective of the total annual transaction volume of new construction land,in 2004-2018,residential land showed a rising trend,while industrial land,administration and public services land,and transportation land did not change much.(2)From the relationship between economic development and the development intensity of new construction land,administration and public services and transportation land have a positive impact on GDP.From the relationship between the development intensity of new construction land,there is a two-way negative impact between commercial and residential land,administration and public services land and transportation land.The industrial land has a negative impact on commercial and residential land.From the relationship between the economy and the total transaction volume of new construction land,there is a two-way positive impact between GDP and commercial and residential land.In the long run,there is also a two-way positive impact between GDP and industrial and mining storage land.However,the impact of shortterm industrial land on GDP is not significant.There is a two-way negative impact between administration and public services land and transportation land,and GDP.From the relationship between the total transaction volume of new construction land,there is a significant two-way negative impact between commercial and residential land,and industrial land in the long run,but the impact of short-term industrial land on commercial and residential land is not significant.There is a significant two-way positive impact between administration and public services land and transportation land,commercial and residential land,and industrial land,but the impact of short-term industrial land on administration and public services land and transportation land is not significant.(3)Although the land use structure in Shanghai has improved since 2004,there are still some unreasonable points.The unreasonable situation is mainly reflected in the large proportion of industrial land in the city,and the proportion of administration and public services land is too small.The evolution of land use structure in Shanghai can be divided into two stages: the first stage is 2004-2006,the information entropy shows a downward trend,the equilibrium and dominance are unchanged;the second stage is 2007-2018,information entropy,equilibrium Degrees are on the rise.Urban scale,economic development level and urban competitiveness have a significant positive impact on the information entropy of land use structure.The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry to GDP,the proportion of the tertiary industry's output value to GDP,and the proportion of science and technology expenditure to local fiscal expenditure have a significant negative impact on the information entropy of land use structure.