Research On The Integrated Decision-making Model Of Easy-storable Agricultural Product Inventory Sales

Non-perishable agricultural products is a large category of agricultural products,storage methods are relatively simple,and some products have higher value,collection value and value-added space,which is the target of sales and investment of many agricultural enterprises,and plays an important role in the production and marketing of agricultural products.In the actual production process,due to the characteristics of agricultural products,it is vulnerable to natural disasters,human factors and other uncertainties that lead to the uncertainty of supply.With the development of economy and the improvement of people's living standard,consumers' demand for agricultural products is becoming more and more diverse and uncertain.In addition,the selling price of some non-perishable agricultural products will change with the fluctuation of market demand.At present,scholars have little research on non-perishable agricultural products.Most of them study the inventory or sale of non-perishable agricultural products unilaterally.At the same time,they lack the consideration of factors under the agricultural background,such as the uncertainty of supply,the randomness of demand,the fluctuation of sales price and so on.The unreasonable inventory and sales decisions will result in goods hoarding or shortage,which will bring huge economic losses to agricultural enterprises,and is not conducive to the development of agricultural enterprises.The research of the thesis can help the enterprise to better determine the order quantity and sales volume under multiple risks,reduce the potential loss risk of the enterprise,and improve the company's revenue.Therefore,in view of the inventory and sales of multi-cycle and non-perishable agricultural products under uncertain supply and demand,this paper constructs an integrated decisionmaking model of multi-cycle inventory and sales from the perspective of decision makers of agricultural enterprises,and studies the optimal order quantity and sales volume decision-making.Firstly,the paper considers the sales revenue of non-perishable agricultural products,the inventory holding cost when the actual supply exceeds the demand,the shortage cost when the market demand cannot be met,and the procurement cost,and constructs a multi-cycle inventory and sales integrated decision-making model with uncertain supply and demand.The objective function of the model is to maximize the expected profit.The order quantity and sales volume of each cycle are the decision variables.The order quantity and sales volume constraints and the risk preference of the decision maker are taken into account.Secondly,based on the method of sequential quadratic programming and using the language of Matlab,the algorithm of solving the model is designed.Then,the output and price of Pu'er Tea of different brands,varieties and series in Yunnan Province are collected and analyzed,and the price fluctuation law and output situation are obtained as the reference basis for setting parameters in the case analysis.Finally,based on the output and price data of Pu'er tea in Yunnan Province,a simulation example is designed to verify the effectiveness of the model and algorithm,and sensitivity analysis of cost,supply,demand and other parameters in the multi-cycle inventory and sales decision-making model is carried out.According to the research,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)The optimal order quantity and sales volume can be determined effectively by the model and algorithm constructed in this paper.(2)The optimal sales volume of products ordered in a certain cycle increases with the increase of the corresponding unit holding cost,and will affect the sales volume of products ordered in a certain cycle in the subsequent cycle,which will reduce the sales volume of products ordered in a certain cycle in the subsequent cycle.(3)When the unit purchasing cost of a cycle increases slightly,the expected profit of the objective function is not affected,and the order quantity of the cycle is not affected;when the unit purchasing cost of a cycle increases too much,the total cost is greater than the sales revenue,which will reduce the order quantity of the cycle or even choose not to order accordingly.(4)By analyzing the fluctuation of sales price,it is concluded that when the sales price increases in a certain cycle,the corresponding sales volume will also increase.When the sales price increases to a certain extent,all products will be allocated to the corresponding cycle sales,so as to maximize the expected profits.When the sales price decreases by the same extent as the increase,it will be preferred to sell in this cycle to reduce the additional inventory holding cost.(5)Compared with the impact of unit out-of-stock cost,unit inventory holding cost and supply rate on sales volume,unit sales price and unit inventory holding cost have more obvious impact on sales volume;and the expected profit is also more obvious affected by unit sales price and supply rate.The research of this paper is an extension of the existing theory of inventory management of agricultural products.It can provide a theoretical basis for agricultural enterprises to better determine the ordering and sales volume of easy-to-store agricultural products under the uncertainty of supply and demand.It can help to improve the ability of enterprises to cope with risks,improve the expected returns of enterprises,and thus promote the development of agricultural industrialization.