Game Analysis In Supply Chain Of Agricultural Perishable Products

The practice & application of supply chain theory are both deepened in the world every day . Especially, the benefit coordination between the members in supply chain management has become an important research direction in the supply chain research field and has gained great study achievement.Recently, the thought,theory and method in supply chain management began to extend to the agriculture field , the research for agriculture supply chain in china is main to described in macroscopic angle. The study in modeling aspects of agriculture supply chain is very weak in the theory circle.By the practical investigation in market of fresh agricultural perishable products, The author found that the mode of supply and demand is the main organization mode of Chinese fresh agricultural perishable products supply chain at present. The dual breaking contract behavior of company & peasant household seriously restrict the improvement of agricultural perishable products supply chain in practice. Some theorists and practitioners put forward some qualitative expiations and measures that should be adopted. It is urgent need for the supply chain system of perishable agricultural products to analyse the complex interests relationship between the supply chain members from deeplying and quantitatively and to find the scientific coordination method and to set up the reasonable and effectual cooperative relationship between them to realize risk sharing and revenue sharing.At present, the assumption of uncertain objects description obeys a typical probability distribution in the supply chain research of the retail and manufacturing industry. However, the market price and market demand of fresh agricultural products have sorely change and strong uncertainty in the agricultural products supply chain. This strong uncertainty don't obey any typical probability distribution and only can be known the maximums and minimums of its parameter variations and it is difficult to know its rule of change. This is just the object which is mainly researched in the grey system theory .This paper combine the grey system theory with game theory and apply them to the supply chain management of perishable agricultural products from the point of view of system engineering and cybernetics. By taking the two-stage chain of perishable agricultural products supply chain as the research object and around the game problem of perishable agricultural products supply chain which company & farmer mode play a dominant role, the next four aspects are studied.Firstly, according to the dynamic characteristics of perishable agricultural products, the game problem of the two-stage chain system for "one company -to-one farmer" is first analyzed in grey market price. The research idea and method based on grey system theory are proposed. Then the grey game model of "one to one of company & farmer" is established and the grey incomes under various decisions are analyzed. Finally the factors of influencing the game result between company and farmer are studiedd and the reasonable and effective of the model are verified by an example.Furthermore, because there is strong uncertainty in the actual supply chain of perishable agricultural products, the game problem of the two-stage chain system for "one company -to -one farmer" is studied in grey market demand . Base on setting up the grey game model under grey market demand, the various factors of influencing the game result between company and farmer are analyzed. Finally, the analyzed results are verified by an example.According to the game problem in the case of one period signing contract and more periods transactions during finishing the contract in the actual supply chain of perishable agricultural products, the grey game model of both sides under once-transaction is first setting up. Then, the grey incomes under various game results are analyzed . The problem of grey game is transformed into the problem of grey dynamic programming. Finally, The optimum balanced tactic of grey game in the case of one period signing contract and more periods transactions under grey dynamic market demand is studied.The paper analyzes the problem of grey game in the case of many farmers -to-one company in the supply chain of agricultural perishable products at last. The grey game model in the grey market price, which multi-farmer have competition relations, is first established. And then, the grey incomes under various game results are analyzed as well.The various factors of influencing the game result between many farmers -to-one company in the grey market price are studied. Finally, the analyzed results are verified by an example. This paper applies the grey system theory to supply chain management of perishable agricultural products . It is a new try for supply chain management to use grey system theory either in theory or in practice. The author hope and believe to make progress in the next study in the future .