Research On The Effect Of Reducing Demand Variability On The Profit Of Supply Chain Members

In supply chain management,there are double-marginal effects and profit losses of supply chain caused by the variability of market demand and the risk preference of member enterprises.Under uncertain conditions,the decision-making problem of supply chain inventory has become more and more important and difficult to study.The traditional method to study the uncertainty of demand is stochastic dominance,but stochastic dominance cannot study the complex decision problem.On this basis,by citing two generalized mean preserving transformations related to probability distribution proposed in risk management,we study the impact of reducing demand variability on inventory decision-making and utility of supply chain system,focusing on the value of reducing demand variability on improving supply chain performance.By studying the monotonicity of the generalized mean preserving transform function for parameters,it is more convenient to study the impact of demand variability on different decision makers in the supply chain.This method can not only be more simple and convenient to calculate,but also can study the results of random dominance or complex decision problems that cannot be solved.The specific research work is as follows:Based on the linear generalized mean preserving transform proposed by Levy and the nonlinear generalized mean preserving transform proposed by Zhu and Wu,in chapter 2,we give the stochastic monotonicity of the two variations and their relationship with the traditional research method(random dominance).In the third chapter,we apply two kinds of general average keep transformation to Yu HaiBo conformity risk neutral in the newsboy problem,by studying the retailer of the optimal profit for demand variability reduce the monotonicity of parameters,we can see a clear and simple to reduce demand variability for the positive effect of retailers' optimal profits.In chapter 4,the research problem is further extended to the centralized system of risk appetite supply chain with mean CVaR constraint.The impact of the reduction of demand variability on the system under different average demand levels is studied in three cases,namely,the penalty cost of out of stock,the emergency order cost and the penalty cost of out of stock.In chapter 5,the system is further extended to the supply chain decentralization system to study the impact of the supply-chain system dominated by the supplier on the members of the supply chain by reducing demand variability,and to find the contracts that can make the supply chain coordinate.The solution of each chapter can provide basis and Suggestions for enterprises to adjust their decision-making strategies,so as to help enterprises better improve their profits.The main recommendations are as follows: when you have an urgent ordering opportunity,seize it;Risk-neutral and risk-averse retailers should take the initiative to predict market demand to reduce demand variability,so as to obtain greater benefits no matter what kind of products they sell and where they sell them.While the retailers pursuing risk should reduce the demand variability when they sell high-quality products in first-tier cities,they can also reduce the demand variability when they sell low-quality products in third-tier cities.In the supply chain hierarchy,the supplier dominated Stackelberg game is better for suppliers and the supplier static system is better for retailers.