Analysis Of The Influence Of Monetary Policy On Real Estate Price Based On VAR Model

In 1998,the real estate market ushered in a major turning point.The state completely abolished the welfare housing,and the real estate market was completely marketized.Because of this,the real estate industry has entered a period of rapid development,and the proportion of China's total economic output has been continuously strengthened,and now it is enough to affect the stability of China's economic development.It is undeniable that real estate plays an absolutely important role in China's economic development in recent years.An industry has driven a huge industrial chain,increased employment opportunities,increased tax revenue,and ultimately promoted rapid economic development.However,with the continuous development of the industry,various problems have emerged.The price of the real estate market has risen too fast,which has caused the momentum of the real estate bubble.Excessive development has reduced the cultivated land;it has promoted the increase of labor costs to a certain extent,which is not conducive to the development of other industries.Wait,we have to be vigilant.Therefore,when formulating monetary policy,the central bank should fully consider the real estate industry,formulate and implement monetary policy to regulate the real estate market,and make it stable and healthy development.This paper analyzes the principle that the real estate market price is affected by monetary policy by constructing VAR model,and provides constructive suggestions for the central bank to formulate corresponding monetary policy based on the research conclusion.Firstly,the related concepts of monetary policy and real estate market are introduced.Then,through theoretical analysis,the influence mechanism of monetary policy formulated and implemented by China's central bank on the real estate market is analyzed.Finally,the model is used to demonstrate.The data used in this paper is the monthly data from 2000 to 2015.The VAR model is used to test the national real estate sales average price,money supply,loan balance and interbank lending rate to analyze several indicators of monetary policy regulation.The effect on the price of the real estate market.Based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,recommendations are made for the central bank to formulate monetary policy.It is believed that monetary policy has a significant impact on the real estate market.However,the effects of various economic indicators on housing prices are different.It is necessary to formulate a monetary policy that suits the actual economic situation in order to exert the maximum effectiveness of the policy.The main recommendations of this paper are to ensure the validity and scientificity of monetary policy;limit purchases and purchases,strengthen mortgage management;and increase the government's housing security service function.