Regional Differences In The Payments Of The Pension Insurance

The pension insurance is the first level in China’s multilevel pension insurance system,and it is also one of the most important types of insurance in social security.In recent years,the aging of the population has increased the risk of pension payment in China.The government needs to consume fiscal funds every year to subsidize it.However,the problem of underpayment of pension insurance has not yet been properly resolved.As a result,more and more provinces and cities have experienced the problem of unbalanced income and expenditure of pension insurance,and the disparity in pension payment capacity between provinces and cities has shown an expansion trend.This geographical disparity has hindered the improvement of the overall level of pension planning in China.Based on this,quantitative analysis is used to comprehensively and in-depthly reflect the differences in pension capacity at the provincial level across the country.On this basis,the reasons for the unbalanced development of pensions in different regions are explored,which is of great significance for the overall planning of the sustainable development of the national pension.This paper selects the urban employees pension insurance funds in 31 provinces and cities except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan as the research objects,and analyzes the difference in the inter-provincial pension insurance capacity through empirical tests.On the basis of quantitative analysis,combining with the actual situation in China,we propose policy recommendations for promoting the sustainable development of basic pension insurance.First,using the inter-provincial panel data from 2007 to 2016,we established a threshold regression model for pension gaps in all provinces in China.We found that the impact of aging indicators on the pension income and expenditure ratio has a double threshold effect,within a 95% confidence interval.The threshold estimates of the double-threshold model are 0.270 and 0.713 respectively.Second,the coefficients of the explanatory variables and control variables are estimated using the least-squares method of fixed effects.Third,the homotopy and heteroscedasticity models are established to test the robustness of the threshold model results.Finally,policy recommendations are made on the issue of inadequate pensions in China and the unbalanced development of the pensionable affordability of provinces and cities.Through empirical analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)In areas with low participation rate of basic old-age insurance in urban areas,population aging has an adverse effect on the sustainable development of basic pensions,while the province has a high rate of participation in urban basic old-age insurance.In municipalities and autonomous regions,the aging of the population is positively related to the income and expenditure of basic pensions,and this effect is not significant in areas with moderate participation in urban basic pension insurance.(2)Through estimating the coefficients of the control variables in the model,it is found that the average salary of employees in urban units,the rate of institutional support,and the replacement rate of pension insurance all have a negative effect on the income and expenditure ratio of pensions.